Monthly Archives: March 2014

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine murky after Crimean occupation, annexation, 5 weeks of conflicting reports, 2 massive military deployments along neighbor’s borders, 2 purported withdrawals, various assessments by Kiev, West of size of invasion force; possible explanation: Moscow planning careful incursion while camouflaging military units, creating supply lines; possible reason: Russian ICBMs, air-to-air missiles, warplanes, combat helicopter engines depend on components produced by Ukrainian defense industry, factories located in Kiev, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya; Ukrainian technicians regularly inspect, certify Russia’s strategic missile arsenal; Soviet regime integrated MICs of both countries to promote “national unity”; residents of Belgorod, Russia observe military buildup, even as Ukrainian officials admit some troops may be pulling back; residents of Donetsk, Ukraine make personal plans to flee city in case of Russian attack; Kerry, Lavrov meet in Paris, USA urges troop withdrawal, Russia insists upon federalization of Ukraine

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: PM Medvedev pays official visit to de facto Russian region of Crimea, Simferopol adopts Moscow time, jumps ahead 2 hours; pro-Russia extremists demonstrate in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Lugansk, Odessa over weekend, demand referenda for regional status, release of Kremlin fifth columnist Gubarev, denounce “fascists” in Kiev; Party of Regions expels Yanukovych ahead of May presidential vote, deposed head of state lifts Kremlin script, urges decentralization of power; Ukraine Communists dodge proposed ban, nominate party boss Symonenko for candidate; ex-aide to Putin, DC think tank expert: Putin plans on invading not only SE Ukraine, Moldova and Baltics, but also Finland, “correct Bolsheviks’ mistake” of granting Finnish independence in 1917; neutral Finns nervous over ongoing air force exercise in Russia’s neighboring Karelian region, related nuclear war dill; British troops to join NATO exercise in CEE, Germany ducks Nazi past, offers 6 warplanes to Baltic policing mission

Putin’s view is that he protects what belongs to him and his predecessors. Parts of Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States and Finland are states where Putin claims to have ownership. The West’s leaders seem, from what they say, entirely to have forgotten that there are some leaders in the world who want to conquer other countries. But if Putin is not stopped, the issue will be brought sooner or later. Putin has said several times that the Bolsheviks and Communists made big mistakes. He could well say that the Bolsheviks in 1917 committed treason against Russian national interests by granting Finland’s independence.

— Andrei Illarionov, President Vladimir Putin’s chief economic adviser from 2000 to 2005; quoted by Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, March 2014

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: UN approves resolution affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity, rejects referendum that led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea as “illegal”; senior US military officials: Russian troops massing near Ukraine “concealing, camouflaging their positions” from spy satellites, “establishing supply lines” for “prolonged military incursion into Ukraine”; contrary to earlier reports of Ukrainian counter-offensive, Russian troops still holding gas plant N. of occupied Crimea, site seized on Mar. 15; head of Kiev City State Administration: Enough bomb shelters for 500,000 citizens; Right Sector rallies outside parliament on Thurs., threatened to storm Rada, says interior minister behind police shooting death of regional party leader; acting president Turchynov accuses Pravy Sektor of “destabilizing” country

EU/USSR2 Files: Moldova’s PM Leanca to sign pact with EU by summer, fears Moscow-backed “provocations” in rebel region of Transnistria; former Luxembourg PM Juncker: “It is now a matter of great urgency that the Europeans sign an association agreement with Mol- dova very quickly, i.e., in coming weeks”; Transnistria to adopt Russian law ahead of proposed annexation, tightens control over airspace after Moldovan army joins NATO’s Kosovo mission; Kremlin dispatches Deputy PM Rogozin to Tiraspol in 2013, shows “full support” for President Shevchuk; Moldova’s Commun- ist Party leads polls for Nov. 2014 election, seeks return to power after 5-year hiatus, staged anti-EU demos last Nov., party boss, ex-president Voronin about-faces on EU membership, lately advocates joining Russia-led Customs Union; Romania’s “ex”-communist president fears Russia’s territorial aspirations extend to his country, Basescu: NATO must “reposition resources”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s national security chief Parubiy once again refers to 100,000-man Russian invasion force along country’s E. border, poised to grab Kharkiv, Donetsk; US officials suggest “far lower,” but still worrisome figure; Russian Air Force carries out exercises in NW, S. and Far East regions of country, deploys Su-25SM3 “Frogfoot” close air support aircraft, Su-27 “Flanker,” Su-30 “Flanker-C” fighter jets; residents of E. Finland alarmed by aerial combat exercise in Russia’s Karelia region, report live-fire activity to emergency response authorities; Russian social media reports massive military buildup N. of Ukraine’s Chernihiv Oblast; Bulgaria observes “dramat- ic increase” in number of Russian recon flights near Black Sea coast since Jan., “daily” interceptions; 2- week, 700-man NATO exercise underway in former communist state, once Soviet Union’s most compliant satellite

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Photo gallery of Ukrainian Armed Forces preparing to repel possible Russian invasion, pictures taken near Kharkiv and Mykolaiv (Nicolaev), March 14, 2014: source

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian DM Shoigu fails to mollify U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel, Pentagon press secretary Rear Admiral Kirby: “No indication that Russian troops massed near the border with Ukraine are conducting routine military exercises,” “They continue to reinforce. . .”; Ukraine Defense Ministry: Two military trains with a total of 60 cars arrive at Klimovo, in Russia’s Bryansk region, near Belarus, Ukraine’s N. border; deployment of mobile communication, coordination centers, accommodation, field hospitals observed on Ukraine’s E. border; Republican members of House Armed Services Cmte. to White House: “Deep apprehension that Moscow may invade E. and S. Ukraine, pressing west to Transdniestria, and also seek land grabs in the Baltics”; Ukraine starts talks with EU to import natural gas via Slovakia, reduce dependency on Gazprom

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia reports taking control of “all” Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea, seizes bulk of Ukrainian Navy but permits Ukrainian Army to retreat with armor; Kremlin to deploy Tu-22M3 “Backfire” regiment to Crimea by 2016, long-range bombers last based on peninsula in 1991; Moscow, Minsk to hold another Union Shield drill in 2015, follows Zapad 2013 last Sept.; Moscow-Yerevan military deal submitted for Putin’s ratification, Armen- ian diplomat in Russia denies recognizing Crimea “re- unification”; “Not so quiet on the eastern front”: Russian social media awash with amateur reports, pics of troop, armor deployment near Ukraine’s borders; NATO, Ukrainian officials expect imminent invasion, but dispute size of Russian invasion force; NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe gives classified briefing to House Armed Services Cmte., Thurs. a.m.

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin feigns disinterest in invading mainland Ukraine after forcibly annexing Crimea, bolstering positions along neighbor’s border under guise of exercises; Air France superjumbo on Shanghai-Paris flight diverted after Russia closes airspace, possibly for strategic rocket drill in Siberia; Lithuania alarmed by Kaliningrad exercise held in con- junction with Russia’s other military districts; Baltic, Northern Fleets carry out maneuvers SW of Cyprus, employ ASW, landing ships; VDV to hold joint drill with Belarusian counterparts in Apr., follows 3,500-soldier paradrop ahead of Crimean referendum; Belarusian army in 2nd stage of “tabletop exercise”; Russian “peacekeeping” force in Moldova’s Transnistria holds 2nd “anti-terrorist” drill, “practices rebuffing attack against base”; Russia introduces passport controls for Ukrainians entering country from Belarus, normally no such checks within Union State

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainian Army, with tanks, possibly more than 5,000 troops, deploy to Kherson Oblast, set up defensive line just N of occupied Crimea, repel possible Russian incursion, intercept saboteurs/provocateurs, construction of 20-km “moat” across isthmus considered; Ukrainian Navy decimated by bloodless Russian takeover, flagship frigate leads rump fleet out of Naval Base North at Odessa; 12,000 of 15,450 Ukrainian sailors based in Crimea, Kremlin says majority defect to Russian Navy, as Kiev points to loyal crew of seized corvette; busloads of Ukrainian troops redeploy to mainland; Russian DM Shoigu appoints treasonous Ukrainian naval chief, Rear Admiral Berezovsky, as Black Sea Fleet Deputy Commander; Gazprom still supplying EU via Ukraine pipelines as US lawmakers mull LNG exports to help Kiev

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: US officials to ABC News: Kremlin bolsters invasion force near E. Ukraine from 20,000 to 30,000 troops, relation to Kiev’s earlier figures of 180,000, 220,000 unclear; Strategic Rocket Forces hold drill in Siberia, Urals; DM Shoigu in Sevastopol, inspects Russian occupation forces; Ukraine’s parliament accepts resignation of acting DM Teniukh; Right Sector leader dies in shootout with police in W. Ukraine, Russian arrest warrant accused Muzychko of “atrocities” against soldiers in Chechnya; colleague in Rivne Oblast maintains Russian troops without markings poised to invade from Belarus, confirms similar allegations made by Kiev; US, German military inspectors to fly (along agreed routes) over Russia, Belarus under terms of Open Skies Treaty; CSTO rules out use of Collective Rapid Reaction Force in Ukraine; G7 terminates G8 summits with Russia, formally expels Moscow over Crimean annexation

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s acting president Turchynov orders complete troop withdrawal from occupied Crimea, redeployment to mainland; Moscow approves OSCE military mission to Ukraine, but not de facto Russian region; SBU cracks down on Moscow’s fifth columnists, detains: 1) 7 Russian Marines travelling surreptitiously from Crimea to Donetsk; 2) 4 well-armed saboteurs planning to attack military unit in Odessa, in collaboration with Russian “special services” based in Crimea; 2,000 pro-Russia separatists rally in Donetsk, advocate referen- dum on region’s status; Parubiy: Kremlin-backed “ex- tremists working in 8 SE oblasts to stir up trouble as likely pretext for Russia’s invasion of mainland”; senior US official: Spy satellites saw Russian military buildup along Ukraine’s E. frontier, but SIGINT failed to inter- cept communications between Kremlin, Russian gener- als; Pentagon denies MQ-5B Hunter aerial drone shot down over Crimea

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe: “The [Russian] force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready. There is absolutely sufficient force . . . to run to Transdniester if the decision was made to do that”; Russian military consolidates control over Crimea: commandos end siege of Ukrainian air base at Belbek, storm facility with APCs, guns blazing, abduct base commander; Russian Navy negotiates surrender of command ship Slavutych, Kiev’s only submarine Zaporizhzhia; 2nd air base in W. Crimean town of Novofedorivka seized; Ukrainian troops given option of serving in Russian military, leaving for mainland; Russian forces release Ukrainian Navy chief, Serhiy Haiduk reportedly detained by FSB; Kremlin lackey Lukashenko: Crimea now “de facto” part of Russia, “We will support Russia”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia’s entire W. border militarized, from Arctic Ocean to Black Sea: CBS News: “Russian troop buildup covers entire Ukrainian border”; Helsinki alarmed by Moscow’s ag- gression in Crimea, major air force exercise in Russia’s neighboring Karelian region; Finnish Air Force ob- serves unusual US, Russian military air traffic, 3 days of “dogfights” (i.e., hostile aerial maneuvering without firing weapons) between US, Russian fighter jets; Russia tightens restrictions on commercial traffic from Finland (just like Lithuania, Ukraine); Russian military jets “buzz” Norway’s NW coast; NATO, Ukraine join planned Saber Guardian military exercise in Bulgaria; Russia’s 1,500 peacekeeping troops in Transnistria carry out exercise, Moscow’s co-chair of Joint Control Commission denies reports of military buildup in Moldova’s breakaway region

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine slaps Russia in face again, signs political association agree- ment with EU, deal rejected by deposed president Yanu- kovich; follows speedy withdrawal from Moscow-led CIS; EU to reduce energy dependence on Russia; British PM: Russian invasion of E. Ukraine would “trigger far-reaching consequences”; London, Berlin, Paris suspend military cooperation with Moscow, no mention of French-Russian Mistral deal; France to contribute 4 fighter jets, AWACS to steadily growing NATO Baltic air patrols; US military preps for “large” exercises in Lask, Poland, will involve Baltics, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria; Turkey dispatches AWACS to patrol Black Sea, closest airborne NATO asset watching Russian-occupied Crimea; Polish, Lithuanian DMs agree to press ahead with air defense acquisitions, form trilateral armed forces brigade with Ukraine

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Senior US intelligence officials confirm Ukrainian media reports: Russia infiltrating special forces, spies, saboteurs into E, S Ukraine with intent of instigating civil strife, “fan flames of separatism”; US Naval War College prof: “This is the use of deniable special operators under GRU control to create provocations and really these are quasi-deniable operations,” Kremlin followed same playbook in Georgia after 2005 Rose Revolution; White House sanctions list of Russian officials includes GRU chief Igor Sergun; Kyiv Post: “Putin bites off piece of Ukraine, pauses to pick teeth”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: 9,000 Ukrainian airmen hold “large-scale” exercise in W. oblast of Vinnytsia; Ukrainian Navy flagship, frigate crew still loyal to Kiev, based out of Odessa, confronts Kremlin’s Black Sea Fleet in Ukrainian waters, Russians retreat; Ukraine PM: “I want to officially warn Russia: we will respond firmly, including through military means, against any attempt to seize Ukraine, to cross borders, or annex eastern or other regions by Russian troops”; Yatseniuk orders Euromaidan militias to sur- render illegal firearms: “For those who want to defend their country with an assault rifle in their hands, wel- come to the National Guard or the Army”; security chief Parubiy urges UN to declare Crimea “demilitarized zone” as up to 20,000 Ukrainian troops, families evacuate Russian-occupied region, probably abandon MiG-29 fighter jets, warships; Russian Navy blockades remaining Ukrainian vessel, Slavutych still refuses to surrender; Russia’s FSB imposes “temporary restric- tions” upon vehicle traffic along Ukraine’s N. border, steps up checks on goods entering Russia

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian special forces seize 3 Ukrainian Navy corvettes in Sevastopol harbor, no casualties reported; fate of command ship Slavutych unknown, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet commander reportedly boarded vessel to negotiate surrender; US defense officials: 20,000 Russian regular, airborne, special forces on “hair-trigger” alert to invade E. Ukraine, supported by heavy armor, attack helicopters; PBS Frontline in Kharkiv: “There are 10,000 Russian troops on the border with some pretty serious weaponry. They’re doing nighttime drills”; 200 Ukrainian paratroopers set up base near E. frontier; SBU cracks down on Moscow’s fifth columnists, detains: 1) GRU officer in Chernihiv Oblast, near Belarus-Russia border, charged with recruiting soldiers, collecting blackmail data on officials; 2) Kharytonov, self-avowed “people’s governor” of Lugansk Oblast, follows arrest of neo-Nazi/communist Gubarev in Donetsk; 3) armed group with explosives in Zaporizhia; 4) armed, black-clad GRU officer at Crimea-Kherson Oblast border; 5) Davydchenko, pro-Russia agitator in Odessa

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian DM Shoigu assures US Secretary of Defense Hagel: Russia has no intention of invading mainland Ukraine; even as Moscow justifies intervention in E. Ukraine, FM Lavrov informs UN’s Ban Ki-moon: “Russia deeply concerned by discrimination of Russian speakers in Ukraine”; meanwhile, new Cold War descends upon East-West relations: Merkel: G8 suspended indefinitely; Kremlin retaliates with sanctions against US officials, lawmakers Boehner, Reid, McCain; last tweets “proud to be sanctioned by Putin”; smarting from annexation of Crimea, Kiev threatens to nationalize Russian assets, Lavrov warns of “a quite complex chain reaction, from which . . . Ukraine will not benefit”; Right Sector’s Yarosh allegedly threatens to blow up Kremlin-owned pipelines in Ukraine, prompting SBU to step up security

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine launches procedure to withdraw from Commonwealth of Independent States, introduces visa regulations with Russia; CIS neutral on Crimean annexation; Kiev co-founded CIS with Moscow, Minsk 5 days before Soviet Union dissolved; NATO chief Rasmussen: “If you look at all of this, you will see an overall Russian strategy” to intervene in E. Ukraine, Russia’s annexation of Crimea “gravest threat to European security and stability since the end of the Cold War”; CSTO counterpart Bordyuzha slams Rasmussen’s comments as “counter-productive,” “provocative”; Russia’s diplomat to UN Human Rights Council reveals Kremlin’s next target for “interven- tion”: Moscow “concerned” over treatment of ethnic Russians in Estonia; VP Biden in Vilnius: USA “abso- lutely committed” to defense of NATO allies

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s interim government shows cracks after far-right Svoboda MPs, angry over Crimea annexation coverage, assault, force resignation of state TV exec, call Panteley- monov “Moscow trash”; PM Yatseniuk condemns attack; Fatherland MP tables motion to ban Communist Party, maintains “Communists launched a campaign aimed at undermining Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity,” “behind the separatist actions and terror in southern and eastern oblasts and Crimea”; Communist deputy in Moscow Duma urges city to rename street or square “to celebrate the reunification of Crimea with Russia”; Russian Bloc activist in Donetsk: “We want the Soviet Union, with Russia” (so does Putin); Turkey’s involvement in Ukraine crisis looms as Crimea’s rebel regime orders pro-Kiev Tatars to relocate within region; Erdogan to Putin: Handle Tatars carefully or Bosphorus will be closed to Russian warships

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine con- cedes “loss,” drafts plan to evacuate armed forces, families from Russian-occupied Crimea; rebel region’s de facto PM Aksyonov: Ukraine’s deputy PM, acting DM not permitted to enter region on bid to rescue stranded troops; Russia continues preps for full-scale Ukraine invasion as 40 air crews based near Finland practice striking “enemy ground convoys,” delivering fire sup- port for “advancing friendly motor-infantry and armored units,” drills slated through May; Russian army “increasing the intensity of military exercises involving troops on the ground in regions bordering Ukraine”; Russia invaded Crimea on Feb. 27 under cover of “snap” 150,000-man drill; USAF F-16 crews at Lask air base begin training sorties with Polish counter- parts; France refuses to cancel Kremlin’s Mistral amphibious assault ship order, waiting for EU’s “third round” of sanctions

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainians nervous over Moscow’s intentions after giant neighbor invades, occupies, annexes Crimea over 3-week period; Ukraine’s first deputy PM, acting DM rush to de facto Russian region to defuse tensions after invaders seize Ukraine Navy HQ in Sevastopol, raise Russian flag; Russian FSB reportedly captures Ukraine Navy chief, Rear Admiral Hayduk; more Russian troops storm Kiev’s Simferopol base, 1 Ukrainian soldier, 1 attacker killed in gun battle; Kharkiv Oblast governor: Russian invasion force masses along highways 9 miles from Ukraine’s E. border; Ukrainian servicemen patrol hasti- ly built defensive trench in Donetsk Oblast; Kharkiv, Mykolaiv regional authorities inspect air raid shelters; Poland deports Belarusian military attaché, wife, charged with collecting data on NATO facilities; Lithu- ania arrests, accuses Russian diplomat of espionage; Putin, lackey Lukashenko talk by phone, Belarus “neu- tral” over Ukraine crisis, but Belarusian air defenses under Russian command since 2012

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian troops break 5-day truce on 2nd day, storm Ukrainian military sites in Crimea, abduct base commanders at Sevastopol, Simferopol; Ukrainian junior officer shot dead in latter confrontation, first casualty of 20-day Ukraine-Russia war; Kiev authorizes soldiers to fire in self-defense; PM Yatseniuk in emergency government meeting: “Russian soldiers have started shooting at Ukrainian military servicemen . . .”; addresses citizens of S, E Ukraine: “Law enforcement agencies have gathered compelling evidence of involvement of Russian secret services to the organization of riots in the East of the country. There are seized detainees”; PM Erdogan phones Putin, warns Turkey will blockade Bosphorus if Russia in- vades (E.) Ukraine, Crimean self-defense forces attack Muslim Tatars; emboldened by Crimea’s new status, Russian-speaking separatist regime of Transnistria applies for accession to Russian Federation; Deputy PM Rogozin, nominated for White House sanctions list, says: Ukraine blockading Transnistria, Moldova no longer has legitimate interest in territory, Kremlin to consider region’s fate Mar. 20; Moldova views acces- sion to EU “matter of urgent necessity”

Winds of war blowing through the world. Shopping mall regime, preoccupied by suicide of Sir Mick Jagger’s girlfriend, staggers on.

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Moscow completes well-planned, well-executed takeover of Ukrainian region, Putin approves bill incorporating Crimea into RF; Russia’s Lavrov, CSTO reps meet in Moscow, discuss Ukraine crisis; PM Yatseniuk: Ukraine to decentralize power to regions, disarm paramilitaries, create “strong, modern army” but not join NATO; Ukrainian Army sets up tank positions S. of Donetsk city, places tank traps along E. frontier, builds 150-km defensive trench-concrete barrier to fend off massed Russian invasion force; Ukrainian sailors aboard 2 warships at Sevastopol refuse to surrender after 2-week siege, outnumbered by Russian Navy; US Sen. Chris Murphy back from Ukraine: Yanukovich, Moscow “gutted” military, “no shape to hold off an invasion”; Ukrainian patriots raise US$1 million for cash-strapped army in 72 hours; “People’s Militia of Donbass” sets up 20 checkpoints to thwart deployment of Ukrainian Army near E. border; pro-Russia fifth columnist leader Gubarev in SBU custody, cadre of far-left PSPU and neo-Nazi Russian National Unity; Russian Communist Party boss decries “Western-backed Banderovite (fascist) regime” in Kiev, anti-communist measures

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Putin’s Henchman in Eastern Ukraine: Separatist Leader Pavel Gubarev

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Pavel Gubarev bio

Russian National Unity (neo-Nazi)

Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine (communist)

People’s Front for Russia (United Russia-linked umbrella group)

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Putin signs decree recognizing Crimea as “sovereign state”; US officials say “concrete evidence that some ballots in Crimea referendum arrived pre-marked in many cities,” “massive anomalies in the vote”; White House sanctions list against Kremlin includes Putin aides, Deputy PM Rogozin, State Duma deputies, deposed Ukrainian president Yanukovich, self-avowed PM of “Republic of Crimea”; slap on wrist for Kremlin possibly anticipated by Russian Communist Party’s strange warning to parliamentarians in early March: “Don’t visit EU, USA”; fearing westward military thrust from resurgent Russia, UK contributes 6 Typhoon figher jets to Baltic Air Policing force, augments 10 F-15s in Lithuania; Warsaw reactivates plan to create Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian brigade

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kiev, Moscow negotiate 5-day truce over Ukrainian troops trapped in Crimea, replenish food at bases, Ukraine’s acting DM Teniukh: “No measures will be taken against our military facilities in Crimea until March 21”; acting president Turchynov, dressed in combat fatigues, rallies the troops at maneuvers N. of Kiev; parliament scrapes up US$600 million to purchase arms, activates 40,000 reservists, trains 20,000 recruits for new National Guard; pro-Russia extremists seize Right Sector office in Kharkiv, police stand aside; heavily armed police patrol Odessa, watching for pro-Moscow fifth column- ists; Ukraine shuts down border with Transnistria, 1,500 Russian troops stationed in Moldova’s separatist region, follows Kiev’s closure of E. frontier with Russia; Russia to deploy second Su-27 “Flanker” squadron in Belarus by end of year, boost deployment from 10 to 24 fighter jets; Russia pours more troops, armor into Crimea as landing ship docks near Sevastopol; fearing Russian aggression in Ukraine, Sweden joins NATO’s Cold Response drill, reconsiders neutral stance

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: World reacts to “Soviet-style” referendum in Russian-occupied Crimea, Simferopol’s declaration of independence, intention to reunite with Russia; Kiev recalls Moscow ambassador for “consultations”; Obama to Putin: USA will not rec- ognize fraudulent vote; EU slaps sanctions on Russian, separatist officials; mixed reactions from new NATO states: “ex”-red President Basescu: Romania does not recognize Crimean referendum; Sofia’s “ex”-red Social- ist government: Bulgaria “should not be among hawks in the European Union” towards Russia; Gorbachev: “World should welcome prospect of Crimea becoming part of Russia,” “rectifies historic mistake from Soviet era”; 50,000 opponents, 15,000 supporters of Russia’s annexation of Crimea hold counter rallies in Moscow, latter wave Soviet flags; Crimea’s rebel regime “nation- alizes” Ukrainian state-owned assets, “disbands” Ukrainian military units on bases besieged by Russian troops

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Rebellion grips E. Ukraine as 95% of Crimeans vote for reunification with Russia, Kiev shuts down civilian traffic across Russian border; 300 pro-Moscow activists (i.e., fifth columnists) block, prevent unloading of military train near Lugansk, train carrying combat vehicles to Russian border; “People’s Militia of Donbass” impedes Ukrainian army columns near Donetsk; pro-Russia extremists overwhelm riot police at SBU’s Donetsk office, tear down Ukrainian flag, hoist Russia’s; 8,000 rally around Lenin monument, demand Don River region join Russia; still others demand release of Krem- lin lackey, militia leader Gubarev; 3,000 Russophones, Communists rally in Kharkiv, advocate federalization of Ukraine; Russian FM: “There have been numerous calls on Russia to protect peaceful civilians [in Ukraine]. These appeals will be considered”

You know as well as we do who is organizing mass protests in eastern Ukraine – it is Kremlin agents who are organising and funding them, who are causing people to be murdered.
— Ukraine’s Acting President Alexander Turchynov, in capacity as parliamentary speaker, addressing opposition MPs from deposed predecessor’s Party of Regions

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia sends Beriev A-50 early warning aircraft to Belarus, part of Union State air defense “exercise,” counters NATO’s deployment of AWACS over Poland, Romania, aug- ments Russian “Flanker” fighter jet squadron; Bela- rusian dissidents: 3,000 Russian troops in Belarusian uniform, but under Moscow’s direct command; report could support Kiev’s assertion Russian army units active in Belarus, ex-Putin aide’s statement: Ukraine invasion planned a year ago; possibly deployed under cover of last Sept.’s Zapad 2013 drill; “Cyber Berkut” hackers bring down NATO’s public websites, post Russian-language rants against “Kiev junta,” experts suspect SVR; follows early March cyberattack against Ukrainian MPs’ mobile phones, disruption traced to Russian-occupied Crimea

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainian Air Force repels “dozens” of Russian paratroopers landing on Arbatskaya Strelka, land spit runs parallel to Crimea’s E coast but partly in Kherson Oblast; invaders try to seize natural gas pumping station supplying rebel region, Ukrainian soldiers re-secure site; 2 hours later 80 Russian soldiers, backed by 4 helicopter gunships, 3 APCs, seize Strelkovoye; town of 1,300 also located on spit, N of occupied region; unclear whether gunfire exchanged in either incident; Russia vetoes UN Security Council draft resolution declaring Mar. 16 referendum on region’s status “invalid”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Unrest contin- ues in Ukraine’s Russophone regions: Two killed after pro-Russia extremists besiege Right Sector office in Kharkiv, gunfire exchanged with neo-fascists, weapons seized; far-right Svoboda activist killed in Mar. 13 clash with pro-Kremlin supporters in Donetsk, governor accuses Russia of fomenting strife by sending militants over border, objects to Moscow asserting “right to protect compatriots in E. Ukraine”; Russia takes aim at Ukraine’s interim, “neo-Nazi” government, opens criminal case against Svoboda chief Tyagnibok, alleges armed action against Russian troops in Chechnya, follows charges against Right Sector leader Yarosh, apparent retaliation for Kiev’s sabotage case against Russian Black Sea Fleet commander

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia partly suspends imports via Lithuania after former Soviet republic condemns Kremlin aggression in Ukraine, frets over army exercises in Kaliningrad; Pentagon dispatches 6 F-15 fighter jets to bolster existing air unit, 150 servicemen at Siauliai air base; Russian N. Fleet re-opens radio-electronics base closed in 2009, 3,000 personnel to be sent this year to Alakurtti, 50 km from Finnish border; alarmed by Russian invasion of Crimea, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary, Poland sign pact, place 3,000-man “V4-EU” combat unit under NATO com- mand by 2016; Kravchuk: “Does Russia not understand that this is the beginning of World War III?”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin clearly plans to attack mainland Ukraine, protects “western flank” from NATO counter-attack, Russian and Belarusian missile troops test operational readi- ness of Union State’s integrated regional air defense; Ukraine FM: Moscow possibly preparing sneak attack via Belarus, widespread Russian army drills extend into buffer state, Minsk scoffs at allegation, also denies Belarusian spies apprehended in Poland; superpower carrier showdown looming amidst East-West moves, counter-moves: Northern Fleet’s Admiral Kuznetsov, USS George H.W. Bush strike group both sailing in Mediterranean Sea; Russian Su-33 “Flanker-D” fighter jets, Ka-27 ASW helicopters flying sorties from sole aircraft carrier; Bush strike group holds joint exercises with NATO allies Greece, Romania, Bulgaria

Anyone for another world war? We’re looking at the biggest dust-up since 1945. News out of Europe getting worse and worse by the day. Few noticing global political-military implications of Ukraine/Crimea crisis. Seems like Putin was just waiting for a Russian victory at the Sochi Olympics as a signal to make his move against errant Ukraine. We need another Ronald Reagan, not Barack Hussein Obama, in the White House.

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Yesterday, we predicted a possible Russian sneak attack against Ukraine via Belarus.

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Four Russian strategic bombers, aerial tankers conduct 24-hour mission in polar region; VDV drops 350 paratroopers over New Siberian Islands, practice seizing airfield within 40 minutes; Russia’s “routine” aviation patrols over Arctic not so routine as Kremlin readies invasion force along Ukraine’s borders, counters arrival of 12 USAF F-16 fighter jets in Poland with deployment of Su-27 squadron in Belarus; Ukrainian forces conduct exercises in Mykolayiv Oblast, NW of occupied Crimea, includes aircraft, airborne troops, tanks; one of two Belarusian spies detained in Poland was military attaché, nabbed while photographing NATO training center at Bydgoszcz; high-ranking Polish Interior Ministry official: “There is no difference to us between Belarusian and Russian spies. Both countries have joint intelligence”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Washington rebuffs Kiev’s request for arms, ammo, intel support, Sen. McCain “The US should not be imposing an arms embargo on a victim of aggression”; communists protest outside White House during Obama-Yatseniuk meeting, denounce “US taxpayer money for Ukraine neo-Nazis”; UK’s center-left Guardian denies allega- tions of “fascist coup” in Kiev; US Army Europe to pro- ceed with multilateral “Rapid Trident 2014” exercise in W. Ukraine in July; Atlas Vision 2014 drill slated for NE Russia, all other military cooperation with Moscow scrapped after Crimean invasion; Ukrainian army colonel at Sevastopol’s Belbek air base, under siege since Feb. 28, threatens to open fire at Russian troops unless Kiev issues new orders: “We are ready to fulfill our duty to the end”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: NATO’S Gen. Bartels, Russia’s Gen. Gerasimov discuss Ukraine crisis; Putin meets with Russian Security Council; CSTO monitors increased NATO activity in E. Europe, but “not planning joint military force” (yet); S-300 SAM convoy spotted in Odessa, part of mobilization to repel Russian attack; Ukrainian patrol plane encounters “flagrant shooting” from Russian APC at Armyansk, Crimea; Ukrainian sailors trapped in Crimean ports still refuse to surrender warships, Cmdr. Zvyagentsev: “If I am ordered to [fight], we will be ready”; rebel regime in Simferopol offers referendum voters two options: Join Russian Federation or be ruled by “neo-Nazis” in Kiev; Russian troops, “self-defense forces” assault, intimidate journalists; E. Ukraine unrest continues as pro-Kiev, pro-Moscow supporters clash in Donetsk, 1 killed

There is no reason at all to vote on Sunday. This referendum is not serious and is a completely illegal attempt to justify the occupation. They don’t really want to be part of Russia. We are under occupation here, people are afraid so of course this is what they say they want.
— “Yevgeny,” Euromaidan activist, resident of Simferopol, Russian-occupied Crimea

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine shuts down Russian-language TV, deploys air defense units near strategic sites, soldiers guard Chernobyl NPP; Poland arrests 2 Belarusians near military sites, charged with spying for Russia; Kremlin responds quickly to Minsk’s fears over USAF deployments in Poland, Lithuania: 6 Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jets, 3 military transports land at Babrujsk air base, total of 10 Russian “Flankers” in Belarus; builds up invasion force along Ukraine’s borders, exercises slated for rest of March, near Rostov, Tambov, Belgorod, Kursk, includes artillery, MRLs; Russia can open up several fronts around Ukraine: NE, E frontiers vulnerable to 80,000-, possibly 220,000-, man army, sneak attack via ally Belarus, small thrusts from pro-Russia separatist regimes: 20,000-30,000 troops in Crimea, 2,000 in Transnistria; ex-Putin aide, DC think tank expert: “Putin’s goal is Kiev and the whole Ukraine. He wants a land corridor from Crimea to Transnistria where ex-KGB officers and FSB agents are ruling now . . . Putin planned the attack on Ukraine a year ago”; Moldovan analyst: “If Russia continues its military aggression in Crimea, Transnistria could become the second phase of Russia’s hostilities

The world is very clearly on the verge of nuclear war, perhaps more so than at any time during the Cold War, but the shopping mall regime is still blind.

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Transnistria: Russia’s Beachhead in Europe

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Putin talks by phone with Crimean Tatar politician: Legality of secession of Ukraine from Soviet Union in 1991 debatable; Dzhemilev counters: Crimean secession will break 1994 memorandum in which Russia, UK, USA pledged to uphold Ukrainian territorial integrity; Ukraine’s acting president: Moscow refusing “crisis talks,” but allows Kiev to conduct aerial surveillance over its territory per Open Skies Treaty (perhaps to see invasion force, cow Ukraine into submission); Turchy- nov: “We cannot launch a military operation in Crimea, as we would expose the eastern border and Ukraine would not be protected”; Ukrainian media reports specific Russian military formations opposite Churni- hiv, Sumy Oblasts (N. of Kiev), Volyn Oblast (near Belarus); reported Mar. 3 pullback apparent feint

We expect that our neighbors will make sure that the Russian Armed Forces are conducting no military activities threatening Ukraine’s security at its border.
— Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov, March 11, 2014

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Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Moscow accepts Minsk’s plea for more Russian warplanes in Belarus, promises to deploy “unspecified number” after Lukashenko takes dim view of enlarged USAF presence in Poland, cites Kremlin’s obligations under “Union State Treaty”; Russia dispatched 4 Sukhoi Su-27 “Flankers” to Baranovichi air base last Dec., anticipates building its own air base in Belarus, near Poland, Lithuania, by 2015; CSTO (“new Warsaw Pact”) meets, discusses “Russia’s measures to stabilize recent devel- opments in Ukraine,” readiness of Collective Rapid Reaction Force, unified air defense system; India joins Red China in backing “Russian interests in Crimea”

With news like this, it’s hard not to believe that the world is on the brink of nuclear war. The Collective Security Treaty Organization has been quiet during the Ukraine crisis, but it is guaranteed to back Russia.

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Collective Security Treaty Organization

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian Armed Forces recon unit penetrates Kherson Oblast N. of occupied Crimea, Ukrainian SBU detains invaders, maintains group’s task was to study location, state of preparedness of Ukrainian forces; follows arrest of GRU officer in Donetsk, Russian agent charged with sabotage, organizing and supplying weapons and explosives to pro-Russia extremists in E. Ukraine; unconfirmed report: two US unmanned spyplanes shot down over Crimea; US, Romanian, Bulgarian navies begin joint exercise in Black Sea, no live-firing; US Naval Mobile Construction Battalion building anti-missile site at Romania’s Deveselu air base even as Ukraine crisis unfolds; Polish president visits Lask air base, expresses gratitude for augmented US fighter jet deployment, requests even larger US military presence

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s national security chief says country faces “full-scale invasion” as Russia amasses 80,000 troops, 280 tanks, 170 aircraft along Ukraine’s E. frontier; Parubiy: “Russian army is only a two to three hour [distance] from Kiev”; figures differ from acting DM’s report, but belie news of Mar. 3 Russian pullback; Ukrainian infantry, tanks, artillery carry out exercises in Khar- kiv border region; Kiev trains 20,000 volunteers for new National Guard, turns back 3,600 Russian citizens at borders, fearing provocations in Russophone areas; ex-Putin aide, DC think tank expert: “Right now, Russian special forces from the 22nd Brigade are in Ukraine . . . expect staged attacks on Russian soldiers and citizens”; exodus of Ukrainians from Crimea expected after Mar. 16 secession vote, “nationalization” of state assets; Russian occupiers shut down all flights out of Simferopol airport–except to Moscow; PM Yatseniuk in USA for urgent White House visit

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Yanukovich dispels rumors of his death, holds 2nd press conference in Rostov, Russia: Dismisses Ukraine government as “gang of ultranationalists and neo-fascists,” denies impeachment, orders army to resist Turchynov, Yatseniuk; in spite of March 3’s reported pullback from Ukraine’s N, E borders, acting DM Teniukh maintains Russia has deployed 220,000 troops, 1,800 tanks, 400 helicopters near E. Ukraine; informs parliament: only 6,000 of Ukraine’s 41,000 troops “really combat ready,” “no legal basis for launching military operations in Crimea” as Russia has neither formally declared war nor acknowledged army’s presence in rebel region; admits “strategic errors,” “We never envisaged a threat from Russia”; Ukraine to hold joint air force drills with NATO state Poland in May/June; Kremlin’s sabre rattling continues with 4,000-man paratrooper drop, follows last week’s air defense drill, 150,000-troop deployment; SBU: Russian “special service” agent detained for plotting to bomb public sites in Donetsk, Lugansk, follows series of small blasts at Mar. 1 demo in Kharkiv

The Ukraine crisis has amply confirmed Cold War-era, Soviet Bloc testimony concerning communism’s long-range plan for global conquest and the contrived collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow’s Leninist rulers will never relinquish Ukraine. The nationalist revolution against “ex”-communist Yanukovich was not part of their plan and thus their rage against the “fascist” regime in Kiev. Viva Golitsyn!

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Latin America File: El Salvador’s ruling FMLN achieves second stage of communist revolution as ex-guerrilla commander, former VP achieves razor-thin victory in presidential run-off vote, right-wing ARENA challenger demands recount; outgoing President Funes represents FMLN’s moderate wing while Sanchez Ceren described as “doctrinaire Leninist,” reliable ally of region’s Red Axis; Sao Paulo Forum includes Cuba’s, Venezuela’s, Nicaragua’s ruling parties; gloating over abolition of term limits, President Ortega sends congrats

The eyes of the world are rightly on Ukraine these days. However, the communists have persisted for over 30 years, first by civil war and then by ballot box, to take over El Salvador. The FMLN’s revolution has definitely reached its second, more radical stage.

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History of Sao Paulo Forum

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian troops with APCs invaded mainland Ukraine last week, cap- tured hotel in town of Chongar, Kherson Oblast, set up camp, minefields across isthmus, prompted standoff with Ukrainian army; BBC reported Russian forces digging trenches across land bridge as early as Mar. 2; Kiev: Russian forces seize anti-aircraft base at Cherno- morskoe, NW Crimea, follows Cape Fiolent and Evpa- toria seizures; Ukrainian Armed Forces begin exercise as armor leaves W. city of Lviv, destination “military secret”; Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dempsey: US military prepared to back up NATO if unrest in Ukraine “escalates”; 16 NATO militaries to participate in this week’s Cold Response exercise in N. Norway

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian forces seize Simferopol military hospital, finally disarm Ukrainian soldiers at anti-aircraft base near Sevastopol; acting DM Teniukh: Despite Ukrainian paratrooper drill, no plans to re-take Crimea; Russian occupiers block Ukrainian naval HQ, Belbek airfield in Sevasto- pol, bases in Novoozernoye, Perevalnoye, Feodosiya, Kerch; Russian Navy blockades Sevastopol’s outer bay, Lake Donuzlav; 12 USAF F-16 fighter jets to arrive in Poland today, 300 US servicemen to follow, 4 F-15s deployed to Lithuania; NATO AWACS to patrol skies over Poland, Romania; US Marines bolster presence at Spanish base; Russia’s deputy PM: Modern weapons needed to fend off “overt threats by USA, NATO”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Putin talks by phone with Cameron, Merkel, insists upon legality of Mar. 16 referendum in Ukraine’s Crimea; Crimean parliament speaker in Moscow: Ukraine, Russia must unite as one state; Russian Communist Party boss backs rebel region’s secession, reunification with Russia; 10,000s of nationalists, Russophones hold counter rallies, clash across Ukraine over weekend; Communist Party of Ukraine organizes pro-Russia demo in Donetsk’s Lenin Square, 2,000 attend; Kremlin builds case for wider military intervention, condemns “lawlessness” in E. Ukraine after gunmen attack Kharkiv demo on Mar. 8, blames neo-fascist Right Sector for “conniving” with Kiev; police describe incident as “minor”

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian troops fortify positions in Ukraine’s Crimea: Landing ships unload 200 military vehicles at eastern end of peninsula on Friday night, after apparently crossing Kerch Strait from Russia’s Taman Peninsula; convoy of 60 military trucks with heavily armed soldiers, no license plates head from Feodosiya toward regional capital Simfer- opol; OSCE mission attempts third entrance into Crimea, this time 40 masked gunmen (i.e., Russian troops) fire warning shots, OSCE observers retreat

Red Terror File: Russia, Ukraine feud over sniper carnage during Euromaidan demos; Ukraine’s health minister coordinated medical treatment for protesters, fingers plot between “old regime” (i.e., Yanukovich), Russian special forces; Kremlin alleges Ukrainian opposition orchestrated killings, points to phone call between Estonian FM, EU foreign policy chief; former SBU deputy head, Tymoshenko ally: Security Service, Interior Ministry snipers ordered to shoot both civilians and police, “escalate conflict”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian troops prepare to install and/or take over air defence systems in Ukraine’s Crimea as Kremlin holds air defence drills in W. Military District; attempt to seize Ukrainian anti-aircraft base in Cape Fiolent, Sevastopol, ram military trucks through gates, no shots fired, 20 invaders hurl stun grenades, negotiate surrender with base com- mander, 100 Ukrainian soldiers barricade themselves in barracks, refuse to lay down weapons; Russian invaders retreat, leaving pro-Moscow “self-defence force” to patrol area; 2nd anti-aircraft base partly seized in Evpatoria

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Gunmen (i.e., Russian troops) seize TV station in Simferopol, turn off signals for Ukrainian channels, turn on Kremlin-run Rossiya 24; OSCE military observers arrive in Ukraine, twice prevented from entering Crimea at checkpoint controlled by “unidentified gunmen in military fatigues” (i.e., guess who); Kiev adjusts figure: Russian troops in rebel region total 30,000, including Black Sea Fleet; top Russian lawmaker welcomes annexation of Crimea, 65,000-member rent-a-mob rallies in Red Square, shouts “Crimea is Russia!”; EU announces incremental sanctions, USA immediate ones against Moscow over occupation