Communist Bloc Military Updates: Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces test-fire SS-27 Mod 2 road-mobile ICBM from Plesetsk Cosmodrome, 2nd such test since invading Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula; CSTO chief Bordyuzha: Belarus “western outpost” of Moscow-led military alliance, Minsk’s air defenses boast “quite high capabilities”; Russia’s GLONASS navigation system crashes 2nd time in as many weeks, 8 of 24 satellites malfunction for 30 minutes; speculation: Russian military might be overloading GLONASS with requests as special forces coordinate insurgency in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast; Japan scrambles fighter jets to intercept 2 Russian “Bear” bombers, 2 Ilyushin Il-20 spy planes, Moscow, Tokyo quarrel over S. Kurils; Russian paratroopers landed on drifting ice floe in Arctic Ocean last week in first-ever such exercise for VDV; Kremlin pulls Voice of America off the air, refuses to renew contract, Rossiya Segodnya chief Kiselyov on US sanctions list, says Russia can reduce USA to “radioactive ash”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian military invasion of mainland Ukraine underway as Russia’s 45th Airborne Regiment carries out covert ops in SE oblasts after “slow-motion” infiltration; Ukraine’s First Deputy PM Yarema: “Right now, they’ve [several hundred Russian paratroopers] concentrated their strength in Krasniy Lyman, Horlivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk (all in Donetsk Oblast); the terrorists are committing violent acts against police officers and are taking over government buildings”; Kiev backs up tough talk to crush insurgency: 1) Interior Ministry’s elite Omega unit, with reported fire support from Ukrainian warplanes, storms, recaptures airfield between Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, pro-Russia militants wounded, possibly some deaths, RUSSIAN SOLDIERS CAPTURED; 2) deploys first battalion of 350 National Guard troops to rebel region; revived branch of Ukrainian military includes recruits from EuroMaidan protests, ultranationalists; Parubiy Facebooks: “The soldiers have a high fighting spirit and readiness to protect Ukraine . . . I’m sure that we’ll win because God and Ukraine are with us”; state-run Ukroboronprom equips National Guard with 100 factory-new APCs, BTR-4 boasts 30mm cannon, anti-tank missiles

Ukraine is facing its own real-life “Red Dawn” scenario right now. News of developments in Europe is still available. However, if a world war erupts between NATO and CSTO over the Ukraine crisis, expect major Internet disruptions. National and international news may be impossible to obtain. The survival of your family and the defense of North America will become paramount.

In reporting on the Ukraine-Russia war, please note we are very cautious in our use of Russian media sources since Kremlin disinformation has been evident on several occasions, such as in the alleged mutiny aboard the Ukrainian Navy’s flagship frigate last month. That story turned out to be a complete lie. Typically, we will only cite Russian state media if its reports confirm that which is separately corroborated by Western media. Furthermore, while we monitor late-breaking updates in the alternate and social media, we try to wait until the story appears in the MSM before posting news.

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s First Deputy PM Yarema: Party of Regions, Communist Party inciting rebellion in SE oblasts, follows regional bans against ousted regime coalition partners, attempt to pass national ban against communism; acting FM Deshchytsia: Family of deposed president Yanukovich financing separatist rallies; foreign ministry spokesman Perebyinis: Russia “doing everything” to disrupt four-party meeting in Geneva slated for Apr. 17; pro-Russia separatist leaders huddle in 11th-story room of occupied Donetsk Oblast HQ, defy Kiev, vow total control over region; Makovich: “Everything from city cleaning to the sewage system, the airport, railway stations, military … should all be under your control”; Pushilin, self-styled head of “Donetsk People’s Republic”: “One thing is clear, there will be no May 25 presidential elections for us”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian military invasion of mainland Ukraine underway as NORAD carries out “training flights” over Washington DC next 2 nights, follows Mar. 19 drill; Exercise Falcon Virgo held in coordination with FAA, National Capital Region Coordination Center, Joint Air Defense Operations Center, Civil Air Patrol, U.S. Coast Guard, NORAD’s E., W. Air Defense Sectors; follows 2-week NORAD drill by Royal Canadian Air Force over N. territories; Pentagon: Russian Sukhoi Su-24 fighter jet made 12 passes by USS Donald Cook in Black Sea on Apr. 12, 2nd “Fencer” in area, observed destroyer’s response to provocation; 3 French warships also cruising Black Sea, “bolster NATO’s E. flank”; Russian envoy to NATO Grushko: “We will take into account in our military planning any possible changes in NATO forces and configurations and . . . will take necessary measures in the interests of ensuring our security”

World war going hot soon. Shopping mall regime snoozing peacefully . . . for just a little while longer. Got civil defense? Probably not.

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian military invasion of mainland Ukraine underway as Turchynov talks by phone with UN chief Ban Ki Moon, requests deployment of international peacekeeping troops; Russian Armed Forces began covert operations to seize key administrative, law enforcement, military sites in Donetsk Oblast on Sat., Apr. 12; police station in Slaviansk first target for seizure, reportedly liberated by Ukrainian special forces; masked, well-armed “pro-Russia extremists” storm, occupy Slaviansk airport, police station in Horlivka on Mon., Apr. 14; one attacker in Horlivka reportedly lieutenant colonel in Russian Ground Forces, addresses line of Ukrainian policemen in video; follows seizures of state buildings in smaller regional centers, week-old occupations of Donetsk Oblast HQ, SBU HQ in Lugansk continue

Putin has finished “picking his teeth” after tearing away Crimea from Ukraine and is now taking another “bite.” He does not appear to be concerned about the UN or NATO’s responses.

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Moscow fomenting grave state of insurgency in E. Ukraine, covert Russian military operation definitely underway in Donetsk Oblast, follows Feb. 27-28 “Crimean formula”: Russian special forces masquerading as “pro-Russia militiamen” secured key government, military sites, airports in Simferopol, Sevastopol, airborne troops arrived within 24-28 hours, armored units still later, occupation begins; Kiev to deploy army to suppress Donetsk insurgents; Ukrainian paratroopers begin “combat missions in certain areas,” following groups mobilized: 25th Separate Airborne Brigade (Dnipropetrovsk), 80th Separate Airmobile Regiment (Lviv), 95th Separate Airmobile Brigade (Zhytomyr), 79th Separate Airmobile Brigade (Mykolaiv), 28th Separate Training Airmobile Troops Battalion (Chernihiv); FM Lavrov admits Russian citizens involved in anti-Kiev protests; UN Security Council holds emergency meeting at Russia’s request

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Moscow fomenting grave state of insurgency in E. Ukraine, covert Russian military operation definitely underway in Donetsk Oblast; Kiev’s ability to hold country together questionable with Russian Armed Forces also poised to strike, “defend” Russophones; SBU agents launch anti-terrorist op in Slaviansk on Sun., drive out pro-Russia militants (i.e., Russian special forces?) holding police station, 1 security officer killed, 5 wounded, “unidentifiable number” of casualties in separatist camp; local media: 20 gunmen who seized Kramatorsk police station on Sat. also occupied town council, threw up barricades at nearby military airport; attackers wearing matching military fatigues, toting automatic weapons, arrived by bus; “unidentified men” seize control of prosecutor’s office, police dept., city council early Sun. morning in city of Yenakievo, 60 miles from Slaviansk; 1,000 pro-Russia extremists rally in Mariupol, demand regional independence, seize mayor’s office, wave Russian flags, declare “Donetsk People’s Republic”; U.S. National Security Council: “We call on President Putin and his government to cease all efforts to destabilize Ukraine, and we caution against further military intervention”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin’s stealth invasion of Ukraine continues as pro-Russia extremists (i.e., Russian special forces?) seize another police station in Donetsk Oblast, this time in city of Kramatorsk, police defend building, short gun battle ensues, flag of “Donetsk People’s Republic” raised; follows seizure of police station in Slaviansk by “People’s Militia of Donbass”; official buildings in town of Druzhkovka reportedly occupied by protesters; attack on police buildings in Krasny Liman late Sat. repelled; Donetsk regional police chief intimidated by separatists, resigns; acting President Turchynov summons National Security and Defense Council to “plan response”; Interior Minister Avakov: Pro-Russia violence amounts to “aggression by the Russian Federation”; Russian Armed Forces undoubtedly poised for full-scale invasion of Ukraine

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin’s stealth invasion of Ukraine continues as 15-20 masked gunmen (i.e., Russian special forces?) seize police station in Slaviansk, city of 100,000 in Donetsk Oblast, 93 miles from Russian border; police talking to attackers, but no demands issued; more masked gunmen, sporting black and orange ribbons of pro-Russia separatist movement, stand outside; Interior Minister Avakov: “The response will be very tough because there is a difference between protesters and terrorists”; Kiev backs down after deadline passes for protesters to vacate state buildings in Donetsk, Lugansk; PM Yatseniuk negotiates with regional, separatist leaders, referenda permitted, regional governors no longer appointed, no limitations on Russian language; full-scale military assault still looms as 40,000 Russian troops, tanks, artillery, fighter jets positioned at 100 sites along Ukrainian border

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Stand-off between Ukraine’s interim government, pro-Russia extremists in Donetsk, Lugansk continues; rebels reject Turchynov’s offer of amnesty, Yatseniuk meets with legitimate regional authorities in Donetsk, offers devolution of power; special forces delay anti-terrorist ops, reportedly refuse to storm oblast HQ in Donetsk, SBU regional HQ in Lugansk; Donetsk rebels return some SBU weapons, Lugansk counterparts raided SBU armory, tote assault rifles, sport bullet-proof vests; “People’s Militia of Donbass” ousted regional council on Apr. 6, proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic,” urged Putin to send Russian “peacekeeping” troops to region, plans to form “People’s Army”; Donetsk militia leader, neo-Nazi/communist Gubarev still in SBU custody; Kiev-appointed governor Taruta: “The decisions made by the people who have seized government institutions are unlawful”; Lugansk militia leader Mozgovoy treks to Moscow to secure backing for rebellion, Zhirinovsky and Mironov supportive, no meeting with Putin, but addressed Russian president with plea “to make decisive move to settle crisis”

Final Phase Backgrounder: Russian lawmakers blame current Ukraine crisis, “illegitimate” Yatseniuk government on collapse of Soviet Union; United Russia, Communists, Liberal Democrats request top prosecutor to investigate Gorbachev (now 83 years old) for “treason,” last Soviet president acted “illegally,” flouted results of March 1991 vote by dissolving Soviet regime; Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan to ink Eurasian Union treaty in May, build upon CIS, CSTO, Union State, EurAsEC Customs Union; Communist voted mayor of Novosibirsk, Russia’s third-largest city, unofficial capital of Siberia; red victory perceived as blow for United Russia as opposition parties bow out of race to support Anatoly Lokot; Communist HQ in Kiev torched on Apr. 9, party boss Symonenko alleges “people close to ruling parties, parliament’s majority involved in the crime,” CPU to withdraw from Rada work until arrests made, follows parliamentary punch-up with neo-fascists

Even today, we are facing the consequences of developments of 1991. People in Kiev are dying and will be dying further due to the fault of those, who made the decision to destroy the country in the Kremlin many years ago.
– Mikhail Degtyaryov, Russian Federation State Duma Deputy, Liberal Democratic Party of Russia faction

It was impossible to imagine that Ukraine and Russia could not be together. That they could be in separate states. But that is what happened. What seemed impossible, unfortunately occurred. The USSR broke up.

Some Western politicians are already trying to frighten us not only with sanctions but with the prospect of worsening internal problems. I would like to know what they mean by this: the actions of some kind of fifth column, various types of national traitors or do they expect that they can worsen Russia’s socio-economic situation and thereby trigger people’s discontent. We regard such statements as irresponsible and obviously aggressive and will respond appropriately.

– Vladimir Putin, Russian Federation President, on occasion of signing treaty to annex Crimea, March 18, 2014

Viva Golitsyn!

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March 1991 referendum on preservation of Soviet Union as “renewed federation”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: East-West war of words heats up: Russian Dep. DM: “Certain NATO countries plan massive troop deployments near Russian borders”; NATO Dep. Sec.-Gen. Vershbow: “I totally dismiss claim by Antonov that NATO plans to deploy large military contingents close to Russia’s borders”; Daily Beast: Washington refusing to share “critical” military intel with Kiev, i.e., location of Russian army units, field hospitals; senior US intel officer speculates: Ukrainian military closely aligned with Russia’s until Feb., likely penetrated by GRU; Russia places MiG-31BM interceptor aircraft on combat alert in W. oblast of Tver; Turkish Air Force intercepts Russian spy plane flying along Black Sea coast; Pentagon to temporarily augment F-16 squadron in Poland with 18 more from Germany, total of 40 US warplanes in Lask between June 2-21; follows announcement of F-16 deployment to Romania; number of NATO fighter jets patrolling Baltics to triple to 12 for 4-month rotation starting May, Estonia offers 2nd base for visiting alliance warplanes, complements Lithuania’s

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Moscow’s mantra: No army buildup along Ukraine border; Russia’s missile troops practice camouflaging mobile launchers for Topol-M, Yars ICBMs, deploying false units; Russia bolsters armored units in Bryansk oblast, N of Kiev; 76th Air Assault Division (Pskov), 106th Guards Airborne Division (Tula) in Belgorod oblast; CIS chiefs of general staffs talk mil-mil cooperation in Baku, Ukraine absent, pulling out of Moscow-led CIS, never member of CSTO; Belarus tests rapid reaction forces, follows Union State air defense exercises, tightened border controls with Ukraine, Kiev’s deployment of APCs, missile systems to NW frontier; Washington wags finger at Kremlin amid Ukraine crisis, USS Donald Cook to sail into Black Sea, replaces USS Truxton; Czech Rep. to partly integrate air force with Slovakia’s “in a few months,” offer cross-border servicing of warplanes, “interconnect” airspaces, pursue “unauthorized planes to Ukrainian border”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine, Russia, USA, EU to hold 4-party talks next week; Kiev terminates natural gas imports from Russia; ITAR-TASS: Ukraine’s stores of gas enough for 1 month; Interior Minister Avakov: Separatist protests in SE oblasts will be “resolved within 48 hours — either through negotiations or force”; pro-Russia extremists release 51 hostages from SBU regional HQ in Lugansk, other reports deny hostage taking; SBU arrests: 1) 1 Russian citizen, 3 Ukrainians, charged with stealing, turning over SBU hard drives to FSB agent in Kharkiv, “Russian special services engaged a network of agents among residents of Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia”; 2) 23-year-old Russian female, charged with subversion, involved in clashes outside Mykolaiv oblast HQ, shot, wounded 3 people, funnelled weapons to pro-Russia extremists, tasked with spying on Ukrainian border guards along Crimean checkpoints; Polish FM on CNN’s “Amanpour” show: “Russia financing subversion in E. Ukraine using pretext of ethnic tensions”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Contrary to earlier reports, pro-Russia extremists still holding Donetsk oblast HQ, dig in with stacks of tires, razor wire, “Ukrainian military nowhere to be seen”; more separatists, possibly in collaboration with Russian FSB agents, holding up to 60 hostages at SBU regional HQ in Lugansk, mine building with explosives, control security service’s arms warehouse; Ukraine Rada strengthens penalties for “crimes against national security,” interfering with operations of armed forces; Interior Minister: Almost 1/3 of Kharkiv police dismissed for “failure to fulfill duties” during uprising; Kerry: “What we see from Russia is an illegal and illegitimate effort to destabilize a sovereign state and create a contrived crisis with paid operatives”; Hague: “There can be no justification for this action, which bears all the hallmarks of a Russian strategy to destabilise Ukraine”; Czech President Zeman: NATO should send troops to Ukraine if Russia invades

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: “Trigger event” for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has arrived: Acting President Turchynov: Russian “secret services” organized seizure of government buildings in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkiv on Sun., 70 separatists detained in last city; authorities will “liberate” SBU regional HQs in Donetsk, Lugansk; “planned provoca- tions” failed in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv; Russian Foreign Ministry: “We urge [Kiev] to immediately stop all military preparations which could lead to a civil war,” Kiev employing “US mercenaries” from Virginia-based Greystone Ltd. to suppress uprisings in SE oblasts; US envoy to OSCE: 10,000s of Russian troops on Ukraine border, “not in their normal peacetime positions or garrisons”; acting head of Presidential Admin: “No evidence businessman Akhmetov, Party of Regions faction leader Yefremov provide financial assistance to separatists”; brawl erupts in Rada as 15 Svoboda, Communist MPs start shoving, punching match, neo-fascists angered by inflammatory comments from Communist Party boss Symonenko

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin fabricates pretext to invade mainland Ukraine: Russia “concerned” over possible “leaks” of ballistic missile technology from Kiev’s defense industry; Ukrainian Air Force returns “Fulcrum” fighter jets to combat service, carries out sorties, 2 MiG-29s spotted in skies over restive SE regions today; Kiev deploys APCs, missile systems to NW border with Belarus after accusing Russia of secreting military into buffer state, Russian VDV to hold practice drops in Belarus in mid-April; Russia’s top general visits Baku, Azerbaijan in CSTO 1994-1999; CSTO: Ukraine authorities must stop “rampage of [right-wing] radicals”; Tusk: NATO to bolster military presence in Poland “within weeks”; Bucharest’s DM: USAF to deploy F-16 fighter jets to Romania for “pretty long period”; Moldovans fear Russian aggression in rebel region Transnistria, burn Putin portraits in Chisinau

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainian special forces expel pro-Russia separatists occupying Donetsk Oblast government HQ; masked extremists who seized building on Sun. armed with machine guns, RPGs; Crimea’s de facto PM Aksenov tweets: Deposed president Yanukovych has returned to Donetsk; Kharkiv activists briefly proclaim “people’s republic,” appeal to Moscow for protection, before being routed from admin HQ; police block approaches to Lugansk after regional coup attempt; Turchynov informs nation: Authorities “will deal with” separatists as terrorists, Putin’s goal “to destabilize situation in the state, over- throw Ukrainian authorities, disrupt elections and break our country into pieces”; SBU arrests 1) Russian citizen, GRU agent at border crossing, suspected of coordinating pro-Moscow rebellions in SE Ukraine; 2) self-proclaimed “people’s mayor” of Mariupol

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Possible pro-Russia coup underway in SE Ukraine as “People’s Militia of Donbass” seizes oblast government building in Donetsk, declares “people’s republic,” raises Russian flag, demands secession referendum, occupies SBU re- gional HQs in Donetsk, Lugansk, raids security service arsenal; security chief Parubiy, SBU head Nalyvaichen- ko in Lugansk to defuse situation; nationalists, separa- tists hold counter-rallies in Odessa; Turchynov: Rebellion in SE oblasts “second wave” of Kremlin operation to destabilize Ukraine; Yatseniuk: “The plan is to destabilise the situation. The plan is for foreign [i.e., Russian] troops to cross the border and seize the country’s territory, which we will not allow,” protesters have “distinct Russian accents”; Russian army 19 miles from frontier as Strategic Missile Forces carry out nuclear war drill; 2nd death in 40-day Ukraine-Russia war: Russian marine, unarmed Ukrainian naval officer in E. Crimea argue, former shoots, kills latter

Russia lost the element of surprise for a full-scale invasion of mainland Ukraine weeks ago and, thus, has resorted to subterfuge to disguise the presence of an obvious invasion force near its neighbor. As with Russia’s initial, covert invasion of Crimea on February 27 and 28, the situation in SE Ukraine is once again very fluid, but a Russian military invention is no doubt imminent. News is breaking across alternative, independent and social media, as well as Ukrainian- and Russian-language sources.

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainian troops, tanks, armoured vehicles “dig in” along mainland border with Russia; Moscow’s Strategic Missile Forces begin 3-day exercise including 10,000 soldiers, 1,000 pieces of equipment from more than 30 units, purpose of drill to ensure Russia has “sufficient readiness to conduct offensive operations involving massive and simultaneous use of nuclear missiles”; Baltic Sea Fleet coastal defense troops carry out exercise in Kaliningrad exclave; E. Ukraine still restive: pro-Russia extremists storm regional government building in Donetsk, break into SBU regional HQ in Lugansk, rally in Kharkiv, demand independence referendum; Ukrainian reporter, neo-fascist Svoboda member, anti-Yanukovych activist found murdered in forest 60 miles from Kiev

Red Terror File: Ukraine’s crackdown against militants, saboteurs, provocateurs continues ahead of May vote; SBU arrests 15 people suspected of planning to overthrow regional government of Lugansk on April 10, confiscates 100s of rifles, grenades, petrol bombs; retired Ukrainian general: Russia might follow Crimea formula to subjugate Ukraine, infiltrate “proxies” to seize “key government buildings, infrastructure” before “large-scale invasion” of mainland; SBU chief Nalyvaichenko: Yanukovych plot to kill opponents, cling to power not only involved Russian FSB sniper team, but also “heavy aircraft” from Russia landed at Kiev International, Gostomel Airports with 5,100 kg of explosives; incident occurred on Jan. 20, one month before Yanukovych’s ouster

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin fabricates pretext to invade mainland Ukraine: State Duma unanimously (i.e., including Communists) passes resolution condemning “political repression” of “Russian-speaking citizens” by Ukraine’s “self-proclaimed authorities,” in collaboration with “nationalist radicals,” “extremists”; Moscow statement lists known fifth columnists under SBU detention; Ukrainian Communist Party boss, presidential candidate Symonenko treks to Moscow, confers with Russian counterpart Zyuganov, discuss developments in Kiev; Lavrov: Russian army returning to bases after exercises near Ukraine border; Hagel: “There are troops that are moving around, we know that, but no indications of any significant movements of those large troop deployments . . . away from the border”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainian deputy PM accuses Russia of planning attack from Transnistria, Tiraspol again denies reports of troop buildup; Ukraine state media: 1,000 Russian GRU agents have been infiltrated into Moldova’s Moscow-backed breakaway region to destabilize Ukraine’s neighboring Odessa Oblast ahead of presidential election, “provoke border conflict,” force “state of emergency”; Armed Forces of Transnistria building pontoon bridges across Dniester River (i.e., to Moldova proper); follows Ukraine’s capture of Transnistrian KGB agent, closure of border with Transnistria, halting of supply trains bound for Russian peacekeeping troops, banning of foreign military overflights

WW4 File: Amid deterioration of relations between NATO, Russia over Crimean annexation, North American Aerospace Defense Command begins “planned” two-week “Spring Forward” exercise over Labrador, Nunavut, Northwest Territories; Royal Canadian Air Force major: “Exercising our ability to operate at our forward operating locations across the North is crucial to ensuring we are ready to respond at a moment’s notice”; follows NORAD air defense drills over Washington/Oregon border, Houston, Washington, DC

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe restates fear of Russian invasion of Ukraine, suggests order to attack could be executed within 12 hours; Moscow recalls ambassador to NATO for “consultations” after N. Atlantic alliance suspends all civilian and military cooperation with Russia; Kiev’s state-owned weapons conglomerate Ukroboronprom stops deliveries to Moscow, pending termination of Russian occupation of Crimea; 16 senior Ukrainian military officers attend NATO’s Saber Guardian exercise in Bulgaria; Russia contends USA violated Montreux Convention (1936), guided-missile destroyer USS Truxton overstayed 3-week limit in Black Sea, US Navy to send another warship; Brussels-based Eurocontrol bans commercial flights to Crimea, refuses to recognize any regional air navigation authorities apart from Kiev’s

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin fabricates pretext to invade mainland Ukraine: Gazprom Media’s NTV: “KGB” (note Soviet-era reference for FSB) detains 25 Ukrainian citizens, including 3 Right Sector “activists,” plotting to stage “attacks” in 7 Russian regions, tasked with photographing military units near border; SBU calls NTV story “nonsense”; follows Right Sector leader Yarosh’s alleged mid-March threat to blow up Russian-owned pipelines in Ukraine; State Duma deputy for United Russia submits bill requiring prison terms for repeat violations of public rallies law, admits legislation “anti-Maidan bill”; political analyst Konstantinov fears Sidyakin’s bill would place Russia under “de facto state of emergency”; Turkish diplomat leads OSCE mission to Ukraine, 10 observer teams fan out across country; Ukraine moves to decentralize power short of federalization, recommends election of regional governors

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin fabricates pretext to invade mainland Ukraine: Gazprom CEO Miller to Ukraine’s Naftogaz: Kiev must settle $2 billion natural gas debt, or face 70% rate increase starting April; Kerry pledges to “wean” Ukraine off Russian energy; Moscow incorporates Crimea, Sevastopol into S. Military District as Russian army brings first shipment of “heavy armor,” including 30 T-72 main battle tanks, into Crimea via Kerch Strait roll-on/roll-off rail ferry; prediction: expect Russia to deploy MBTs to isthmus linking peninsula to Kherson Oblast, form core of northward-thrusting invasion force; Russian artillery units drill in Volgograd region, fire self-propelled howitzers, truck-mounted MRLs; Russian VDV to take part in tactical exercises of Belarusian special forces in mid-April; subservient Belarus tightens border security with NW Ukraine

Red Terror File: New SBU chief Nalyvaichenko maintains predecessor Yakymenko, previous Interior Minister Zakharchenko conspired with deposed president Yanukovych to employ Russian Federal Security Service snipers in “anti-terrorist” operation in Kiev’s Maidan protests; 26 FSB officers present at SBU shooting range in Dec. 2013; Ukraine’s crackdown against militants, saboteurs, provocateurs continues ahead of May vote; SBU arrests: 1) 12 ex-members of disbanded Berkut riot police, charged with murder in suppression of demonstrators; 2) 2 Russian citizens in W. city of Lviv charged with planning to abduct “several” Ukrainians, including unnamed presidential candidate, possessed electronic tablet with pics of regional, national politicians, family members

Yanukovych issued the criminal order… to open fire against protesters on February 18-20. [Russian] FSB agents took part in both the planning and execution of the so-called anti-terrorist operation.
Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s acting interior minister, statement made to reporters, April 3, 2014

Four times there were preparations for real [Russian] military operations in Ukraine, and four times they retreated. I think the Russians were waiting for mass protests and the storming of administrative buildings.
Roman Svetan, security adviser to Donetsk Oblast’s pro-Kiev governor, March 31, 2014

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Neo-Sandinista File: Kremlin rewards Nicaragua for “unconditionally” supporting Russia’s annexation of Crimea, plans to build GLONASS satellite navigation hub in C. American country, Cold War-era ally; Nicaragua’s ambassador to Moscow, First Deputy Chairman of State Duma “express satisfaction” on “development of friendly relations” between Sandinista National Liberation Front, Communist Party of Russian Federation; Russian lawmakers arrive in Managua, propose involvement of Russian firms in Hong Kong-led inter-oceanic canal, megaproject includes 2 deep-water ports, airports, railway, pipelines; follows Kremlin’s publicized intention of establishing “military bases” in Caribbean Basin; head of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation “looks forward” to increasing already lucrative arms sales to Caracas

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Putin appears to de-escalate Ukraine crisis, redeploys token battalion of 500-700 Russian soldiers from neighbor’s E. border; NATO scoffs, views pullback as mere “troop rotation,” FMs meet in Brussels, Poland requests 10,000 alliance troops, “two heavy brigades” of armored infantry to deter Russia; senior US defense officials in Kiev for consultations with Ukrainian counterparts; Bucharest approves additional deployment of 600 US troops to augment 1,000 currently stationed in Romania; US, Lithuanian air force pilots to carry out joint training drills over ex-Soviet republic; Gazprom implements long-feared, one-third rate hike for Ukraine’s natural gas supply; Russian Communist Party boss: Sanctions “counter-productive”; Russian PM Medvedev: Crimea to become “special economic zone”; Deputy PM Rogozin laments negative impact of Crimean annexation on defense procurements from Ukraine, visits Minsk to promote integration of Russian, Belarusian MICs; CSTO FMs to meet in Moscow on Apr. 3

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s crackdown against militants, saboteurs, provocateurs continues ahead of May vote; Interior Ministry ordered to “immediately” disarm paramilitaries after shooting incident between “self-defense” groups in Kiev, police surround Right Sector HQ, gunmen leave hotel, surren- der firearms; Kiev regional leader vows Pravy Sektor “intends to continue arming itself unless the situation on the Ukrainian borders and in Kyiv changes”; Mazur: “If war comes to Ukraine, Right Sector will be in the first trenches, it will be defending the Ukrainian state. A sufficient number of enemies know that”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s crackdown against militants, saboteurs, provocateurs continues ahead of May vote; SBU arrests: 1) Eurasian Youth Union leader; cash-flush Russian incited 200 recruits to seize Ukraine Rada, cabinet, promised $500 to each, planned to submit video of attack to Russian news media; Bakhtiyarov’s organization banned, youth wing of Russia’s Eurasia Party; 2) Transnistrian KGB officer; Tiraspol agent collected data on Kiev’s military, plotted to funnel illegal arms, ammo to subversive groups via Ukrainian citizen, destabilize country; state security in Transnistria, Belarus still sports Soviet-era name; UK undercover reporter in Moldovan rebel re- gion: “Heavy military security,” “lot of wealth” sources of which “not clear,” Romanian language suppressed

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Flashback: Moldovan Information and Security Service Accuses Transnistrian Banks of Money Laundering, Tiraspol KGB Rejects Charge (source)

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine murky after Crimean occupation, annexation, 5 weeks of conflicting reports, 2 massive military deployments along neighbor’s borders, 2 purported withdrawals, various assessments by Kiev, West of size of invasion force; possible explanation: Moscow planning careful incursion while camouflaging military units, creating supply lines; possible reason: Russian ICBMs, air-to-air missiles, warplanes, combat helicopter engines depend on components produced by Ukrainian defense industry, factories located in Kiev, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya; Ukrainian technicians regularly inspect, certify Russia’s strategic missile arsenal; Soviet regime integrated MICs of both countries to promote “national unity”; residents of Belgorod, Russia observe military buildup, even as Ukrainian officials admit some troops may be pulling back; residents of Donetsk, Ukraine make personal plans to flee city in case of Russian attack; Kerry, Lavrov meet in Paris, USA urges troop withdrawal, Russia insists upon federalization of Ukraine

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: PM Medvedev pays official visit to de facto Russian region of Crimea, Simferopol adopts Moscow time, jumps ahead 2 hours; pro-Russia extremists demonstrate in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Lugansk, Odessa over weekend, demand referenda for regional status, release of Kremlin fifth columnist Gubarev, denounce “fascists” in Kiev; Party of Regions expels Yanukovych ahead of May presidential vote, deposed head of state lifts Kremlin script, urges decentralization of power; Ukraine Communists dodge proposed ban, nominate party boss Symonenko for candidate; ex-aide to Putin, DC think tank expert: Putin plans on invading not only SE Ukraine, Moldova and Baltics, but also Finland, “correct Bolsheviks’ mistake” of granting Finnish independence in 1917; neutral Finns nervous over ongoing air force exercise in Russia’s neighboring Karelian region, related nuclear war dill; British troops to join NATO exercise in CEE, Germany ducks Nazi past, offers 6 warplanes to Baltic policing mission

Putin’s view is that he protects what belongs to him and his predecessors. Parts of Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States and Finland are states where Putin claims to have ownership. The West’s leaders seem, from what they say, entirely to have forgotten that there are some leaders in the world who want to conquer other countries. But if Putin is not stopped, the issue will be brought sooner or later. Putin has said several times that the Bolsheviks and Communists made big mistakes. He could well say that the Bolsheviks in 1917 committed treason against Russian national interests by granting Finland’s independence.

– Andrei Illarionov, President Vladimir Putin’s chief economic adviser from 2000 to 2005; quoted by Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, March 2014

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: UN approves resolution affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity, rejects referendum that led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea as “illegal”; senior US military officials: Russian troops massing near Ukraine “concealing, camouflaging their positions” from spy satellites, “establishing supply lines” for “prolonged military incursion into Ukraine”; contrary to earlier reports of Ukrainian counter-offensive, Russian troops still holding gas plant N. of occupied Crimea, site seized on Mar. 15; head of Kiev City State Administration: Enough bomb shelters for 500,000 citizens; Right Sector rallies outside parliament on Thurs., threatened to storm Rada, says interior minister behind police shooting death of regional party leader; acting president Turchynov accuses Pravy Sektor of “destabilizing” country

EU/USSR2 Files: Moldova’s PM Leanca to sign pact with EU by summer, fears Moscow-backed “provocations” in rebel region of Transnistria; former Luxembourg PM Juncker: “It is now a matter of great urgency that the Europeans sign an association agreement with Mol- dova very quickly, i.e., in coming weeks”; Transnistria to adopt Russian law ahead of proposed annexation, tightens control over airspace after Moldovan army joins NATO’s Kosovo mission; Kremlin dispatches Deputy PM Rogozin to Tiraspol in 2013, shows “full support” for President Shevchuk; Moldova’s Commun- ist Party leads polls for Nov. 2014 election, seeks return to power after 5-year hiatus, staged anti-EU demos last Nov., party boss, ex-president Voronin about-faces on EU membership, lately advocates joining Russia-led Customs Union; Romania’s “ex”-communist president fears Russia’s territorial aspirations extend to his country, Basescu: NATO must “reposition resources”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s national security chief Parubiy once again refers to 100,000-man Russian invasion force along country’s E. border, poised to grab Kharkiv, Donetsk; US officials suggest “far lower,” but still worrisome figure; Russian Air Force carries out exercises in NW, S. and Far East regions of country, deploys Su-25SM3 “Frogfoot” close air support aircraft, Su-27 “Flanker,” Su-30 “Flanker-C” fighter jets; residents of E. Finland alarmed by aerial combat exercise in Russia’s Karelia region, report live-fire activity to emergency response authorities; Russian social media reports massive military buildup N. of Ukraine’s Chernihiv Oblast; Bulgaria observes “dramat- ic increase” in number of Russian recon flights near Black Sea coast since Jan., “daily” interceptions; 2- week, 700-man NATO exercise underway in former communist state, once Soviet Union’s most compliant satellite

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Photo gallery of Ukrainian Armed Forces preparing to repel possible Russian invasion, pictures taken near Kharkiv and Mykolaiv (Nicolaev), March 14, 2014: source

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian DM Shoigu fails to mollify U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel, Pentagon press secretary Rear Admiral Kirby: “No indication that Russian troops massed near the border with Ukraine are conducting routine military exercises,” “They continue to reinforce. . .”; Ukraine Defense Ministry: Two military trains with a total of 60 cars arrive at Klimovo, in Russia’s Bryansk region, near Belarus, Ukraine’s N. border; deployment of mobile communication, coordination centers, accommodation, field hospitals observed on Ukraine’s E. border; Republican members of House Armed Services Cmte. to White House: “Deep apprehension that Moscow may invade E. and S. Ukraine, pressing west to Transdniestria, and also seek land grabs in the Baltics”; Ukraine starts talks with EU to import natural gas via Slovakia, reduce dependency on Gazprom

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia reports taking control of “all” Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea, seizes bulk of Ukrainian Navy but permits Ukrainian Army to retreat with armor; Kremlin to deploy Tu-22M3 “Backfire” regiment to Crimea by 2016, long-range bombers last based on peninsula in 1991; Moscow, Minsk to hold another Union Shield drill in 2015, follows Zapad 2013 last Sept.; Moscow-Yerevan military deal submitted for Putin’s ratification, Armen- ian diplomat in Russia denies recognizing Crimea “re- unification”; “Not so quiet on the eastern front”: Russian social media awash with amateur reports, pics of troop, armor deployment near Ukraine’s borders; NATO, Ukrainian officials expect imminent invasion, but dispute size of Russian invasion force; NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe gives classified briefing to House Armed Services Cmte., Thurs. a.m.

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin feigns disinterest in invading mainland Ukraine after forcibly annexing Crimea, bolstering positions along neighbor’s border under guise of exercises; Air France superjumbo on Shanghai-Paris flight diverted after Russia closes airspace, possibly for strategic rocket drill in Siberia; Lithuania alarmed by Kaliningrad exercise held in con- junction with Russia’s other military districts; Baltic, Northern Fleets carry out maneuvers SW of Cyprus, employ ASW, landing ships; VDV to hold joint drill with Belarusian counterparts in Apr., follows 3,500-soldier paradrop ahead of Crimean referendum; Belarusian army in 2nd stage of “tabletop exercise”; Russian “peacekeeping” force in Moldova’s Transnistria holds 2nd “anti-terrorist” drill, “practices rebuffing attack against base”; Russia introduces passport controls for Ukrainians entering country from Belarus, normally no such checks within Union State

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainian Army, with tanks, possibly more than 5,000 troops, deploy to Kherson Oblast, set up defensive line just N of occupied Crimea, repel possible Russian incursion, intercept saboteurs/provocateurs, construction of 20-km “moat” across isthmus considered; Ukrainian Navy decimated by bloodless Russian takeover, flagship frigate leads rump fleet out of Naval Base North at Odessa; 12,000 of 15,450 Ukrainian sailors based in Crimea, Kremlin says majority defect to Russian Navy, as Kiev points to loyal crew of seized corvette; busloads of Ukrainian troops redeploy to mainland; Russian DM Shoigu appoints treasonous Ukrainian naval chief, Rear Admiral Berezovsky, as Black Sea Fleet Deputy Commander; Gazprom still supplying EU via Ukraine pipelines as US lawmakers mull LNG exports to help Kiev

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: US officials to ABC News: Kremlin bolsters invasion force near E. Ukraine from 20,000 to 30,000 troops, relation to Kiev’s earlier figures of 180,000, 220,000 unclear; Strategic Rocket Forces hold drill in Siberia, Urals; DM Shoigu in Sevastopol, inspects Russian occupation forces; Ukraine’s parliament accepts resignation of acting DM Teniukh; Right Sector leader dies in shootout with police in W. Ukraine, Russian arrest warrant accused Muzychko of “atrocities” against soldiers in Chechnya; colleague in Rivne Oblast maintains Russian troops without markings poised to invade from Belarus, confirms similar allegations made by Kiev; US, German military inspectors to fly (along agreed routes) over Russia, Belarus under terms of Open Skies Treaty; CSTO rules out use of Collective Rapid Reaction Force in Ukraine; G7 terminates G8 summits with Russia, formally expels Moscow over Crimean annexation

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s acting president Turchynov orders complete troop withdrawal from occupied Crimea, redeployment to mainland; Moscow approves OSCE military mission to Ukraine, but not de facto Russian region; SBU cracks down on Moscow’s fifth columnists, detains: 1) 7 Russian Marines travelling surreptitiously from Crimea to Donetsk; 2) 4 well-armed saboteurs planning to attack military unit in Odessa, in collaboration with Russian “special services” based in Crimea; 2,000 pro-Russia separatists rally in Donetsk, advocate referen- dum on region’s status; Parubiy: Kremlin-backed “ex- tremists working in 8 SE oblasts to stir up trouble as likely pretext for Russia’s invasion of mainland”; senior US official: Spy satellites saw Russian military buildup along Ukraine’s E. frontier, but SIGINT failed to inter- cept communications between Kremlin, Russian gener- als; Pentagon denies MQ-5B Hunter aerial drone shot down over Crimea

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe: “The [Russian] force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready. There is absolutely sufficient force . . . to run to Transdniester if the decision was made to do that”; Russian military consolidates control over Crimea: commandos end siege of Ukrainian air base at Belbek, storm facility with APCs, guns blazing, abduct base commander; Russian Navy negotiates surrender of command ship Slavutych, Kiev’s only submarine Zaporizhzhia; 2nd air base in W. Crimean town of Novofedorivka seized; Ukrainian troops given option of serving in Russian military, leaving for mainland; Russian forces release Ukrainian Navy chief, Serhiy Haiduk reportedly detained by FSB; Kremlin lackey Lukashenko: Crimea now “de facto” part of Russia, “We will support Russia”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia’s entire W. border militarized, from Arctic Ocean to Black Sea: CBS News: “Russian troop buildup covers entire Ukrainian border”; Helsinki alarmed by Moscow’s ag- gression in Crimea, major air force exercise in Russia’s neighboring Karelian region; Finnish Air Force ob- serves unusual US, Russian military air traffic, 3 days of “dogfights” (i.e., hostile aerial maneuvering without firing weapons) between US, Russian fighter jets; Russia tightens restrictions on commercial traffic from Finland (just like Lithuania, Ukraine); Russian military jets “buzz” Norway’s NW coast; NATO, Ukraine join planned Saber Guardian military exercise in Bulgaria; Russia’s 1,500 peacekeeping troops in Transnistria carry out exercise, Moscow’s co-chair of Joint Control Commission denies reports of military buildup in Moldova’s breakaway region

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine slaps Russia in face again, signs political association agree- ment with EU, deal rejected by deposed president Yanu- kovich; follows speedy withdrawal from Moscow-led CIS; EU to reduce energy dependence on Russia; British PM: Russian invasion of E. Ukraine would “trigger far-reaching consequences”; London, Berlin, Paris suspend military cooperation with Moscow, no mention of French-Russian Mistral deal; France to contribute 4 fighter jets, AWACS to steadily growing NATO Baltic air patrols; US military preps for “large” exercises in Lask, Poland, will involve Baltics, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria; Turkey dispatches AWACS to patrol Black Sea, closest airborne NATO asset watching Russian-occupied Crimea; Polish, Lithuanian DMs agree to press ahead with air defense acquisitions, form trilateral armed forces brigade with Ukraine

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Senior US intelligence officials confirm Ukrainian media reports: Russia infiltrating special forces, spies, saboteurs into E, S Ukraine with intent of instigating civil strife, “fan flames of separatism”; US Naval War College prof: “This is the use of deniable special operators under GRU control to create provocations and really these are quasi-deniable operations,” Kremlin followed same playbook in Georgia after 2005 Rose Revolution; White House sanctions list of Russian officials includes GRU chief Igor Sergun; Kyiv Post: “Putin bites off piece of Ukraine, pauses to pick teeth”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: 9,000 Ukrainian airmen hold “large-scale” exercise in W. oblast of Vinnytsia; Ukrainian Navy flagship, frigate crew still loyal to Kiev, based out of Odessa, confronts Kremlin’s Black Sea Fleet in Ukrainian waters, Russians retreat; Ukraine PM: “I want to officially warn Russia: we will respond firmly, including through military means, against any attempt to seize Ukraine, to cross borders, or annex eastern or other regions by Russian troops”; Yatseniuk orders Euromaidan militias to sur- render illegal firearms: “For those who want to defend their country with an assault rifle in their hands, wel- come to the National Guard or the Army”; security chief Parubiy urges UN to declare Crimea “demilitarized zone” as up to 20,000 Ukrainian troops, families evacuate Russian-occupied region, probably abandon MiG-29 fighter jets, warships; Russian Navy blockades remaining Ukrainian vessel, Slavutych still refuses to surrender; Russia’s FSB imposes “temporary restric- tions” upon vehicle traffic along Ukraine’s N. border, steps up checks on goods entering Russia

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian special forces seize 3 Ukrainian Navy corvettes in Sevastopol harbor, no casualties reported; fate of command ship Slavutych unknown, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet commander reportedly boarded vessel to negotiate surrender; US defense officials: 20,000 Russian regular, airborne, special forces on “hair-trigger” alert to invade E. Ukraine, supported by heavy armor, attack helicopters; PBS Frontline in Kharkiv: “There are 10,000 Russian troops on the border with some pretty serious weaponry. They’re doing nighttime drills”; 200 Ukrainian paratroopers set up base near E. frontier; SBU cracks down on Moscow’s fifth columnists, detains: 1) GRU officer in Chernihiv Oblast, near Belarus-Russia border, charged with recruiting soldiers, collecting blackmail data on officials; 2) Kharytonov, self-avowed “people’s governor” of Lugansk Oblast, follows arrest of neo-Nazi/communist Gubarev in Donetsk; 3) armed group with explosives in Zaporizhia; 4) armed, black-clad GRU officer at Crimea-Kherson Oblast border; 5) Davydchenko, pro-Russia agitator in Odessa

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian DM Shoigu assures US Secretary of Defense Hagel: Russia has no intention of invading mainland Ukraine; even as Moscow justifies intervention in E. Ukraine, FM Lavrov informs UN’s Ban Ki-moon: “Russia deeply concerned by discrimination of Russian speakers in Ukraine”; meanwhile, new Cold War descends upon East-West relations: Merkel: G8 suspended indefinitely; Kremlin retaliates with sanctions against US officials, lawmakers Boehner, Reid, McCain; last tweets “proud to be sanctioned by Putin”; smarting from annexation of Crimea, Kiev threatens to nationalize Russian assets, Lavrov warns of “a quite complex chain reaction, from which . . . Ukraine will not benefit”; Right Sector’s Yarosh allegedly threatens to blow up Kremlin-owned pipelines in Ukraine, prompting SBU to step up security