>Latin America File: US Joint Forces Command report: Mexican state ripe for collapse as drug war rages; FMLN poised to win Salvadoran elections

>In a new troubling report published by the US Joint Forces Command, it is apparent that the US Department of Defense views both Mexico and Pakistan as failed states featuring weak, ineffective governments that are unable to maintain internal security in the face of, in the first case, out-of-control drug cartels and, in the second case, the Taliban/Al Qaeda/Islamist insurgency. The prospect of Mexico’s federal government losing control over the military and police forces and the loyalty of the populace, however, poses greater immediate risks for the USA. The Mexican security apparatus is corrupted by drug money at the highest levels, as evidenced by the arrest of the last “drug czar” Noe Ramirez Mandujano, on suspicion of accepting a US$450,000 bribe from the cartels. An excerpt from the US military report follows:

In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.

An overwhelming, northward flood of refugees–interspersed with criminal-terrorist elements, such as the Gulf Cartel’s heavily armed Los Zetas, recruited from both Mexican and Guatemalan special forces units–across the US-Mexican border is only one likely scenario that would follow the collapse of the Mexican government. The current illegal alien invasion of America would be dwarfed by comparison. In 2007 Mexican scholar Raul Benitez was quoted as saying “Los Zetas have clearly become the biggest, most serious threat to the nation’s [Mexico’s] security.”

Pictured above: US President George W. Bush meets with Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon at the White House on January 13. Calderon’s visit was Bush’s last meeting in the Oval Office with a foreign head of state before the inauguration of Barack Hussein Obama on January 20.

There is no question that Latin America’s Red Axis, with Moscow’s quiet approval, would definitely seize the opportunity presented by a power vacuum in Mexico City to install a radical left administration, possibly headed by failed presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. After all, communist regimes throughout the hemisphere–primarily Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia–and leftist insurgents–like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia–are along with Russia the prime movers behind the narco-subversion of the USA. El Paso Times reporter Diana Washington Valdez concludes: “Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who ‘are in denial about what is happening in Mexico.'”

Meanwhile, writing today for the Miami Herald, Marifeli Perez-Stable summarizes the various elections that will be taking place this year in Latin America, including this Sunday’s legislative poll in El Salvador. There the rightist Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) has held the presidency since that country’s civil war ended in 1992. At the same time, neither ARENA nor guerrilla army-turned-political party Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) has an outright majority in the Legislative Assembly.

In 2009, Latin America’s electoral calendar speeds up. Chile, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama and Uruguay hold presidential elections. In Argentina, Mexico and El Salvador, citizens cast ballots in legislative contests. Referendums are set to take place in Bolivia and Venezuela. I’ll highlight a first set here, a second in the Jan. 29 column.

On March 15, Salvadorans elect their next president. In mid-December, Mauricio Funes — the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) candidate — held a 10-to-15 point advantage over Rodrigo Avila from the ruling Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (ARENA). Funes, a 50-year-old civilian and social democrat, couldn’t be more different from Schafik Handal (1930-2006), the FMLN’s 2004 candidate, once guerrilla leader and mostly unreconstructed communist.

Should Funes win, there would be no downplaying his victory. ARENA would end two decades in power. The FMLN would have to prove its mettle governing. El Salvador would inaugurate an opposition president, the ultimate test in young democracies. If the FMLN bests ARENA in Sunday’s legislative elections as polls indicate, it would be a good omen for Funes.

Several weeks ago, Nicaragua’s past and present Marxist dictator Daniel Ortega indicated that should the FMLN win both the legislative and executive office ballots, El Salvador will more than likely become the next member of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas. In November, while he visited Hugo Chavez, Ortega, and Evo Morales in Caracas, President Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia was also interested in joining Latin America’s socialist bloc.

One response to “>Latin America File: US Joint Forces Command report: Mexican state ripe for collapse as drug war rages; FMLN poised to win Salvadoran elections

  1. mah29001 January 15, 2009 at 11:15 pm

    >Hmm, I’m certainly curious on why Mexico’s “Messiah” has remained quite a bit of silence throughout the drug wars. Maybe to certainly not to expose himself toward his fellow Mexican citizens that “former” PRI officials like himself are openly supporting these drug cartels with their close affiliation with FARC and other terrorist groups.Thusly, he can come into power next time Mexico has its elections, or come via coup.

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