WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine slaps Russia in face again, signs political association agree- ment with EU, deal rejected by deposed president Yanu- kovich; follows speedy withdrawal from Moscow-led CIS; EU to reduce energy dependence on Russia; British PM: Russian invasion of E. Ukraine would “trigger far-reaching consequences”; London, Berlin, Paris suspend military cooperation with Moscow, no mention of French-Russian Mistral deal; France to contribute 4 fighter jets, AWACS to steadily growing NATO Baltic air patrols; US military preps for “large” exercises in Lask, Poland, will involve Baltics, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria; Turkey dispatches AWACS to patrol Black Sea, closest airborne NATO asset watching Russian-occupied Crimea; Polish, Lithuanian DMs agree to press ahead with air defense acquisitions, form trilateral armed forces brigade with Ukraine

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Senior US intelligence officials confirm Ukrainian media reports: Russia infiltrating special forces, spies, saboteurs into E, S Ukraine with intent of instigating civil strife, “fan flames of separatism”; US Naval War College prof: “This is the use of deniable special operators under GRU control to create provocations and really these are quasi-deniable operations,” Kremlin followed same playbook in Georgia after 2005 Rose Revolution; White House sanctions list of Russian officials includes GRU chief Igor Sergun; Kyiv Post: “Putin bites off piece of Ukraine, pauses to pick teeth”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: 9,000 Ukrainian airmen hold “large-scale” exercise in W. oblast of Vinnytsia; Ukrainian Navy flagship, frigate crew still loyal to Kiev, based out of Odessa, confronts Kremlin’s Black Sea Fleet in Ukrainian waters, Russians retreat; Ukraine PM: “I want to officially warn Russia: we will respond firmly, including through military means, against any attempt to seize Ukraine, to cross borders, or annex eastern or other regions by Russian troops”; Yatseniuk orders Euromaidan militias to sur- render illegal firearms: “For those who want to defend their country with an assault rifle in their hands, wel- come to the National Guard or the Army”; security chief Parubiy urges UN to declare Crimea “demilitarized zone” as up to 20,000 Ukrainian troops, families evacuate Russian-occupied region, probably abandon MiG-29 fighter jets, warships; Russian Navy blockades remaining Ukrainian vessel, Slavutych still refuses to surrender; Russia’s FSB imposes “temporary restric- tions” upon vehicle traffic along Ukraine’s N. border, steps up checks on goods entering Russia

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian special forces seize 3 Ukrainian Navy corvettes in Sevastopol harbor, no casualties reported; fate of command ship Slavutych unknown, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet commander reportedly boarded vessel to negotiate surrender; US defense officials: 20,000 Russian regular, airborne, special forces on “hair-trigger” alert to invade E. Ukraine, supported by heavy armor, attack helicopters; PBS Frontline in Kharkiv: “There are 10,000 Russian troops on the border with some pretty serious weaponry. They’re doing nighttime drills”; 200 Ukrainian paratroopers set up base near E. frontier; SBU cracks down on Moscow’s fifth columnists, detains: 1) GRU officer in Chernihiv Oblast, near Belarus-Russia border, charged with recruiting soldiers, collecting blackmail data on officials; 2) Kharytonov, self-avowed “people’s governor” of Lugansk Oblast, follows arrest of neo-Nazi/communist Gubarev in Donetsk; 3) armed group with explosives in Zaporizhia; 4) armed, black-clad GRU officer at Crimea-Kherson Oblast border; 5) Davydchenko, pro-Russia agitator in Odessa

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian DM Shoigu assures US Secretary of Defense Hagel: Russia has no intention of invading mainland Ukraine; even as Moscow justifies intervention in E. Ukraine, FM Lavrov informs UN’s Ban Ki-moon: “Russia deeply concerned by discrimination of Russian speakers in Ukraine”; meanwhile, new Cold War descends upon East-West relations: Merkel: G8 suspended indefinitely; Kremlin retaliates with sanctions against US officials, lawmakers Boehner, Reid, McCain; last tweets “proud to be sanctioned by Putin”; smarting from annexation of Crimea, Kiev threatens to nationalize Russian assets, Lavrov warns of “a quite complex chain reaction, from which . . . Ukraine will not benefit”; Right Sector’s Yarosh allegedly threatens to blow up Kremlin-owned pipelines in Ukraine, prompting SBU to step up security

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine launches procedure to withdraw from Commonwealth of Independent States, introduces visa regulations with Russia; CIS neutral on Crimean annexation; Kiev co-founded CIS with Moscow, Minsk 5 days before Soviet Union dissolved; NATO chief Rasmussen: “If you look at all of this, you will see an overall Russian strategy” to intervene in E. Ukraine, Russia’s annexation of Crimea “gravest threat to European security and stability since the end of the Cold War”; CSTO counterpart Bordyuzha slams Rasmussen’s comments as “counter-productive,” “provocative”; Russia’s diplomat to UN Human Rights Council reveals Kremlin’s next target for “interven- tion”: Moscow “concerned” over treatment of ethnic Russians in Estonia; VP Biden in Vilnius: USA “abso- lutely committed” to defense of NATO allies

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s interim government shows cracks after far-right Svoboda MPs, angry over Crimea annexation coverage, assault, force resignation of state TV exec, call Panteley- monov “Moscow trash”; PM Yatseniuk condemns attack; Fatherland MP tables motion to ban Communist Party, maintains “Communists launched a campaign aimed at undermining Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity,” “behind the separatist actions and terror in southern and eastern oblasts and Crimea”; Communist deputy in Moscow Duma urges city to rename street or square “to celebrate the reunification of Crimea with Russia”; Russian Bloc activist in Donetsk: “We want the Soviet Union, with Russia” (so does Putin); Turkey’s involvement in Ukraine crisis looms as Crimea’s rebel regime orders pro-Kiev Tatars to relocate within region; Erdogan to Putin: Handle Tatars carefully or Bosphorus will be closed to Russian warships

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine con- cedes “loss,” drafts plan to evacuate armed forces, families from Russian-occupied Crimea; rebel region’s de facto PM Aksyonov: Ukraine’s deputy PM, acting DM not permitted to enter region on bid to rescue stranded troops; Russia continues preps for full-scale Ukraine invasion as 40 air crews based near Finland practice striking “enemy ground convoys,” delivering fire sup- port for “advancing friendly motor-infantry and armored units,” drills slated through May; Russian army “increasing the intensity of military exercises involving troops on the ground in regions bordering Ukraine”; Russia invaded Crimea on Feb. 27 under cover of “snap” 150,000-man drill; USAF F-16 crews at Lask air base begin training sorties with Polish counter- parts; France refuses to cancel Kremlin’s Mistral amphibious assault ship order, waiting for EU’s “third round” of sanctions

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainians nervous over Moscow’s intentions after giant neighbor invades, occupies, annexes Crimea over 3-week period; Ukraine’s first deputy PM, acting DM rush to de facto Russian region to defuse tensions after invaders seize Ukraine Navy HQ in Sevastopol, raise Russian flag; Russian FSB reportedly captures Ukraine Navy chief, Rear Admiral Hayduk; more Russian troops storm Kiev’s Simferopol base, 1 Ukrainian soldier, 1 attacker killed in gun battle; Kharkiv Oblast governor: Russian invasion force masses along highways 9 miles from Ukraine’s E. border; Ukrainian servicemen patrol hasti- ly built defensive trench in Donetsk Oblast; Kharkiv, Mykolaiv regional authorities inspect air raid shelters; Poland deports Belarusian military attaché, wife, charged with collecting data on NATO facilities; Lithu- ania arrests, accuses Russian diplomat of espionage; Putin, lackey Lukashenko talk by phone, Belarus “neu- tral” over Ukraine crisis, but Belarusian air defenses under Russian command since 2012

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian troops break 5-day truce on 2nd day, storm Ukrainian military sites in Crimea, abduct base commanders at Sevastopol, Simferopol; Ukrainian junior officer shot dead in latter confrontation, first casualty of 20-day Ukraine-Russia war; Kiev authorizes soldiers to fire in self-defense; PM Yatseniuk in emergency government meeting: “Russian soldiers have started shooting at Ukrainian military servicemen . . .”; addresses citizens of S, E Ukraine: “Law enforcement agencies have gathered compelling evidence of involvement of Russian secret services to the organization of riots in the East of the country. There are seized detainees”; PM Erdogan phones Putin, warns Turkey will blockade Bosphorus if Russia in- vades (E.) Ukraine, Crimean self-defense forces attack Muslim Tatars; emboldened by Crimea’s new status, Russian-speaking separatist regime of Transnistria applies for accession to Russian Federation; Deputy PM Rogozin, nominated for White House sanctions list, says: Ukraine blockading Transnistria, Moldova no longer has legitimate interest in territory, Kremlin to consider region’s fate Mar. 20; Moldova views acces- sion to EU “matter of urgent necessity”

Winds of war blowing through the world. Shopping mall regime, preoccupied by suicide of Sir Mick Jagger’s girlfriend, staggers on.

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Moscow completes well-planned, well-executed takeover of Ukrainian region, Putin approves bill incorporating Crimea into RF; Russia’s Lavrov, CSTO reps meet in Moscow, discuss Ukraine crisis; PM Yatseniuk: Ukraine to decentralize power to regions, disarm paramilitaries, create “strong, modern army” but not join NATO; Ukrainian Army sets up tank positions S. of Donetsk city, places tank traps along E. frontier, builds 150-km defensive trench-concrete barrier to fend off massed Russian invasion force; Ukrainian sailors aboard 2 warships at Sevastopol refuse to surrender after 2-week siege, outnumbered by Russian Navy; US Sen. Chris Murphy back from Ukraine: Yanukovich, Moscow “gutted” military, “no shape to hold off an invasion”; Ukrainian patriots raise US$1 million for cash-strapped army in 72 hours; “People’s Militia of Donbass” sets up 20 checkpoints to thwart deployment of Ukrainian Army near E. border; pro-Russia fifth columnist leader Gubarev in SBU custody, cadre of far-left PSPU and neo-Nazi Russian National Unity; Russian Communist Party boss decries “Western-backed Banderovite (fascist) regime” in Kiev, anti-communist measures

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Putin’s Henchman in Eastern Ukraine: Separatist Leader Pavel Gubarev

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Pavel Gubarev bio

Russian National Unity (neo-Nazi)

Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine (communist)

People’s Front for Russia (United Russia-linked umbrella group)

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Putin signs decree recognizing Crimea as “sovereign state”; US officials say “concrete evidence that some ballots in Crimea referendum arrived pre-marked in many cities,” “massive anomalies in the vote”; White House sanctions list against Kremlin includes Putin aides, Deputy PM Rogozin, State Duma deputies, deposed Ukrainian president Yanukovich, self-avowed PM of “Republic of Crimea”; slap on wrist for Kremlin possibly anticipated by Russian Communist Party’s strange warning to parliamentarians in early March: “Don’t visit EU, USA”; fearing westward military thrust from resurgent Russia, UK contributes 6 Typhoon figher jets to Baltic Air Policing force, augments 10 F-15s in Lithuania; Warsaw reactivates plan to create Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian brigade

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kiev, Moscow negotiate 5-day truce over Ukrainian troops trapped in Crimea, replenish food at bases, Ukraine’s acting DM Teniukh: “No measures will be taken against our military facilities in Crimea until March 21”; acting president Turchynov, dressed in combat fatigues, rallies the troops at maneuvers N. of Kiev; parliament scrapes up US$600 million to purchase arms, activates 40,000 reservists, trains 20,000 recruits for new National Guard; pro-Russia extremists seize Right Sector office in Kharkiv, police stand aside; heavily armed police patrol Odessa, watching for pro-Moscow fifth column- ists; Ukraine shuts down border with Transnistria, 1,500 Russian troops stationed in Moldova’s separatist region, follows Kiev’s closure of E. frontier with Russia; Russia to deploy second Su-27 “Flanker” squadron in Belarus by end of year, boost deployment from 10 to 24 fighter jets; Russia pours more troops, armor into Crimea as landing ship docks near Sevastopol; fearing Russian aggression in Ukraine, Sweden joins NATO’s Cold Response drill, reconsiders neutral stance

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: World reacts to “Soviet-style” referendum in Russian-occupied Crimea, Simferopol’s declaration of independence, intention to reunite with Russia; Kiev recalls Moscow ambassador for “consultations”; Obama to Putin: USA will not rec- ognize fraudulent vote; EU slaps sanctions on Russian, separatist officials; mixed reactions from new NATO states: “ex”-red President Basescu: Romania does not recognize Crimean referendum; Sofia’s “ex”-red Social- ist government: Bulgaria “should not be among hawks in the European Union” towards Russia; Gorbachev: “World should welcome prospect of Crimea becoming part of Russia,” “rectifies historic mistake from Soviet era”; 50,000 opponents, 15,000 supporters of Russia’s annexation of Crimea hold counter rallies in Moscow, latter wave Soviet flags; Crimea’s rebel regime “nation- alizes” Ukrainian state-owned assets, “disbands” Ukrainian military units on bases besieged by Russian troops

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Rebellion grips E. Ukraine as 95% of Crimeans vote for reunification with Russia, Kiev shuts down civilian traffic across Russian border; 300 pro-Moscow activists (i.e., fifth columnists) block, prevent unloading of military train near Lugansk, train carrying combat vehicles to Russian border; “People’s Militia of Donbass” impedes Ukrainian army columns near Donetsk; pro-Russia extremists overwhelm riot police at SBU’s Donetsk office, tear down Ukrainian flag, hoist Russia’s; 8,000 rally around Lenin monument, demand Don River region join Russia; still others demand release of Krem- lin lackey, militia leader Gubarev; 3,000 Russophones, Communists rally in Kharkiv, advocate federalization of Ukraine; Russian FM: “There have been numerous calls on Russia to protect peaceful civilians [in Ukraine]. These appeals will be considered”

You know as well as we do who is organizing mass protests in eastern Ukraine – it is Kremlin agents who are organising and funding them, who are causing people to be murdered.
– Ukraine’s Acting President Alexander Turchynov, in capacity as parliamentary speaker, addressing opposition MPs from deposed predecessor’s Party of Regions

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia sends Beriev A-50 early warning aircraft to Belarus, part of Union State air defense “exercise,” counters NATO’s deployment of AWACS over Poland, Romania, aug- ments Russian “Flanker” fighter jet squadron; Bela- rusian dissidents: 3,000 Russian troops in Belarusian uniform, but under Moscow’s direct command; report could support Kiev’s assertion Russian army units active in Belarus, ex-Putin aide’s statement: Ukraine invasion planned a year ago; possibly deployed under cover of last Sept.’s Zapad 2013 drill; “Cyber Berkut” hackers bring down NATO’s public websites, post Russian-language rants against “Kiev junta,” experts suspect SVR; follows early March cyberattack against Ukrainian MPs’ mobile phones, disruption traced to Russian-occupied Crimea

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainian Air Force repels “dozens” of Russian paratroopers landing on Arbatskaya Strelka, land spit runs parallel to Crimea’s E coast but partly in Kherson Oblast; invaders try to seize natural gas pumping station supplying rebel region, Ukrainian soldiers re-secure site; 2 hours later 80 Russian soldiers, backed by 4 helicopter gunships, 3 APCs, seize Strelkovoye; town of 1,300 also located on spit, N of occupied region; unclear whether gunfire exchanged in either incident; Russia vetoes UN Security Council draft resolution declaring Mar. 16 referendum on region’s status “invalid”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Unrest contin- ues in Ukraine’s Russophone regions: Two killed after pro-Russia extremists besiege Right Sector office in Kharkiv, gunfire exchanged with neo-fascists, weapons seized; far-right Svoboda activist killed in Mar. 13 clash with pro-Kremlin supporters in Donetsk, governor accuses Russia of fomenting strife by sending militants over border, objects to Moscow asserting “right to protect compatriots in E. Ukraine”; Russia takes aim at Ukraine’s interim, “neo-Nazi” government, opens criminal case against Svoboda chief Tyagnibok, alleges armed action against Russian troops in Chechnya, follows charges against Right Sector leader Yarosh, apparent retaliation for Kiev’s sabotage case against Russian Black Sea Fleet commander

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russia partly suspends imports via Lithuania after former Soviet republic condemns Kremlin aggression in Ukraine, frets over army exercises in Kaliningrad; Pentagon dispatches 6 F-15 fighter jets to bolster existing air unit, 150 servicemen at Siauliai air base; Russian N. Fleet re-opens radio-electronics base closed in 2009, 3,000 personnel to be sent this year to Alakurtti, 50 km from Finnish border; alarmed by Russian invasion of Crimea, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary, Poland sign pact, place 3,000-man “V4-EU” combat unit under NATO com- mand by 2016; Kravchuk: “Does Russia not understand that this is the beginning of World War III?”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Kremlin clearly plans to attack mainland Ukraine, protects “western flank” from NATO counter-attack, Russian and Belarusian missile troops test operational readi- ness of Union State’s integrated regional air defense; Ukraine FM: Moscow possibly preparing sneak attack via Belarus, widespread Russian army drills extend into buffer state, Minsk scoffs at allegation, also denies Belarusian spies apprehended in Poland; superpower carrier showdown looming amidst East-West moves, counter-moves: Northern Fleet’s Admiral Kuznetsov, USS George H.W. Bush strike group both sailing in Mediterranean Sea; Russian Su-33 “Flanker-D” fighter jets, Ka-27 ASW helicopters flying sorties from sole aircraft carrier; Bush strike group holds joint exercises with NATO allies Greece, Romania, Bulgaria

Anyone for another world war? We’re looking at the biggest dust-up since 1945. News out of Europe getting worse and worse by the day. Few noticing global political-military implications of Ukraine/Crimea crisis. Seems like Putin was just waiting for a Russian victory at the Sochi Olympics as a signal to make his move against errant Ukraine. We need another Ronald Reagan, not Barack Hussein Obama, in the White House.

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Yesterday, we predicted a possible Russian sneak attack against Ukraine via Belarus.

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Four Russian strategic bombers, aerial tankers conduct 24-hour mission in polar region; VDV drops 350 paratroopers over New Siberian Islands, practice seizing airfield within 40 minutes; Russia’s “routine” aviation patrols over Arctic not so routine as Kremlin readies invasion force along Ukraine’s borders, counters arrival of 12 USAF F-16 fighter jets in Poland with deployment of Su-27 squadron in Belarus; Ukrainian forces conduct exercises in Mykolayiv Oblast, NW of occupied Crimea, includes aircraft, airborne troops, tanks; one of two Belarusian spies detained in Poland was military attaché, nabbed while photographing NATO training center at Bydgoszcz; high-ranking Polish Interior Ministry official: “There is no difference to us between Belarusian and Russian spies. Both countries have joint intelligence”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Washington rebuffs Kiev’s request for arms, ammo, intel support, Sen. McCain “The US should not be imposing an arms embargo on a victim of aggression”; communists protest outside White House during Obama-Yatseniuk meeting, denounce “US taxpayer money for Ukraine neo-Nazis”; UK’s center-left Guardian denies allega- tions of “fascist coup” in Kiev; US Army Europe to pro- ceed with multilateral “Rapid Trident 2014″ exercise in W. Ukraine in July; Atlas Vision 2014 drill slated for NE Russia, all other military cooperation with Moscow scrapped after Crimean invasion; Ukrainian army colonel at Sevastopol’s Belbek air base, under siege since Feb. 28, threatens to open fire at Russian troops unless Kiev issues new orders: “We are ready to fulfill our duty to the end”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: NATO’S Gen. Bartels, Russia’s Gen. Gerasimov discuss Ukraine crisis; Putin meets with Russian Security Council; CSTO monitors increased NATO activity in E. Europe, but “not planning joint military force” (yet); S-300 SAM convoy spotted in Odessa, part of mobilization to repel Russian attack; Ukrainian patrol plane encounters “flagrant shooting” from Russian APC at Armyansk, Crimea; Ukrainian sailors trapped in Crimean ports still refuse to surrender warships, Cmdr. Zvyagentsev: “If I am ordered to [fight], we will be ready”; rebel regime in Simferopol offers referendum voters two options: Join Russian Federation or be ruled by “neo-Nazis” in Kiev; Russian troops, “self-defense forces” assault, intimidate journalists; E. Ukraine unrest continues as pro-Kiev, pro-Moscow supporters clash in Donetsk, 1 killed

There is no reason at all to vote on Sunday. This referendum is not serious and is a completely illegal attempt to justify the occupation. They don’t really want to be part of Russia. We are under occupation here, people are afraid so of course this is what they say they want.
– “Yevgeny,” Euromaidan activist, resident of Simferopol, Russian-occupied Crimea

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine shuts down Russian-language TV, deploys air defense units near strategic sites, soldiers guard Chernobyl NPP; Poland arrests 2 Belarusians near military sites, charged with spying for Russia; Kremlin responds quickly to Minsk’s fears over USAF deployments in Poland, Lithuania: 6 Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jets, 3 military transports land at Babrujsk air base, total of 10 Russian “Flankers” in Belarus; builds up invasion force along Ukraine’s borders, exercises slated for rest of March, near Rostov, Tambov, Belgorod, Kursk, includes artillery, MRLs; Russia can open up several fronts around Ukraine: NE, E frontiers vulnerable to 80,000-, possibly 220,000-, man army, sneak attack via ally Belarus, small thrusts from pro-Russia separatist regimes: 20,000-30,000 troops in Crimea, 2,000 in Transnistria; ex-Putin aide, DC think tank expert: “Putin’s goal is Kiev and the whole Ukraine. He wants a land corridor from Crimea to Transnistria where ex-KGB officers and FSB agents are ruling now . . . Putin planned the attack on Ukraine a year ago”; Moldovan analyst: “If Russia continues its military aggression in Crimea, Transnistria could become the second phase of Russia’s hostilities

The world is very clearly on the verge of nuclear war, perhaps more so than at any time during the Cold War, but the shopping mall regime is still blind.

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Transnistria: Russia’s Beachhead in Europe

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Putin talks by phone with Crimean Tatar politician: Legality of secession of Ukraine from Soviet Union in 1991 debatable; Dzhemilev counters: Crimean secession will break 1994 memorandum in which Russia, UK, USA pledged to uphold Ukrainian territorial integrity; Ukraine’s acting president: Moscow refusing “crisis talks,” but allows Kiev to conduct aerial surveillance over its territory per Open Skies Treaty (perhaps to see invasion force, cow Ukraine into submission); Turchy- nov: “We cannot launch a military operation in Crimea, as we would expose the eastern border and Ukraine would not be protected”; Ukrainian media reports specific Russian military formations opposite Churni- hiv, Sumy Oblasts (N. of Kiev), Volyn Oblast (near Belarus); reported Mar. 3 pullback apparent feint

We expect that our neighbors will make sure that the Russian Armed Forces are conducting no military activities threatening Ukraine’s security at its border.
– Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov, March 11, 2014

source 1 source 2 source 3 (Ukrainian) source 4 (Russian) source 5

source 6 source 7 source 8 (Ukrainian) source 9 (Ukrainian) source 10

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Moscow accepts Minsk’s plea for more Russian warplanes in Belarus, promises to deploy “unspecified number” after Lukashenko takes dim view of enlarged USAF presence in Poland, cites Kremlin’s obligations under “Union State Treaty”; Russia dispatched 4 Sukhoi Su-27 “Flankers” to Baranovichi air base last Dec., anticipates building its own air base in Belarus, near Poland, Lithuania, by 2015; CSTO (“new Warsaw Pact”) meets, discusses “Russia’s measures to stabilize recent devel- opments in Ukraine,” readiness of Collective Rapid Reaction Force, unified air defense system; India joins Red China in backing “Russian interests in Crimea”

With news like this, it’s hard not to believe that the world is on the brink of nuclear war. The Collective Security Treaty Organization has been quiet during the Ukraine crisis, but it is guaranteed to back Russia.

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Collective Security Treaty Organization

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian Armed Forces recon unit penetrates Kherson Oblast N. of occupied Crimea, Ukrainian SBU detains invaders, maintains group’s task was to study location, state of preparedness of Ukrainian forces; follows arrest of GRU officer in Donetsk, Russian agent charged with sabotage, organizing and supplying weapons and explosives to pro-Russia extremists in E. Ukraine; unconfirmed report: two US unmanned spyplanes shot down over Crimea; US, Romanian, Bulgarian navies begin joint exercise in Black Sea, no live-firing; US Naval Mobile Construction Battalion building anti-missile site at Romania’s Deveselu air base even as Ukraine crisis unfolds; Polish president visits Lask air base, expresses gratitude for augmented US fighter jet deployment, requests even larger US military presence

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine’s national security chief says country faces “full-scale invasion” as Russia amasses 80,000 troops, 280 tanks, 170 aircraft along Ukraine’s E. frontier; Parubiy: “Russian army is only a two to three hour [distance] from Kiev”; figures differ from acting DM’s report, but belie news of Mar. 3 Russian pullback; Ukrainian infantry, tanks, artillery carry out exercises in Khar- kiv border region; Kiev trains 20,000 volunteers for new National Guard, turns back 3,600 Russian citizens at borders, fearing provocations in Russophone areas; ex-Putin aide, DC think tank expert: “Right now, Russian special forces from the 22nd Brigade are in Ukraine . . . expect staged attacks on Russian soldiers and citizens”; exodus of Ukrainians from Crimea expected after Mar. 16 secession vote, “nationalization” of state assets; Russian occupiers shut down all flights out of Simferopol airport–except to Moscow; PM Yatseniuk in USA for urgent White House visit

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Yanukovich dispels rumors of his death, holds 2nd press conference in Rostov, Russia: Dismisses Ukraine government as “gang of ultranationalists and neo-fascists,” denies impeachment, orders army to resist Turchynov, Yatseniuk; in spite of March 3’s reported pullback from Ukraine’s N, E borders, acting DM Teniukh maintains Russia has deployed 220,000 troops, 1,800 tanks, 400 helicopters near E. Ukraine; informs parliament: only 6,000 of Ukraine’s 41,000 troops “really combat ready,” “no legal basis for launching military operations in Crimea” as Russia has neither formally declared war nor acknowledged army’s presence in rebel region; admits “strategic errors,” “We never envisaged a threat from Russia”; Ukraine to hold joint air force drills with NATO state Poland in May/June; Kremlin’s sabre rattling continues with 4,000-man paratrooper drop, follows last week’s air defense drill, 150,000-troop deployment; SBU: Russian “special service” agent detained for plotting to bomb public sites in Donetsk, Lugansk, follows series of small blasts at Mar. 1 demo in Kharkiv

The Ukraine crisis has amply confirmed Cold War-era, Soviet Bloc testimony concerning communism’s long-range plan for global conquest and the contrived collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow’s Leninist rulers will never relinquish Ukraine. The nationalist revolution against “ex”-communist Yanukovich was not part of their plan and thus their rage against the “fascist” regime in Kiev. Viva Golitsyn!

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Latin America File: El Salvador’s ruling FMLN achieves second stage of communist revolution as ex-guerrilla commander, former VP achieves razor-thin victory in presidential run-off vote, right-wing ARENA challenger demands recount; outgoing President Funes represents FMLN’s moderate wing while Sanchez Ceren described as “doctrinaire Leninist,” reliable ally of region’s Red Axis; Sao Paulo Forum includes Cuba’s, Venezuela’s, Nicaragua’s ruling parties; gloating over abolition of term limits, President Ortega sends congrats

The eyes of the world are rightly on Ukraine these days. However, the communists have persisted for over 30 years, first by civil war and then by ballot box, to take over El Salvador. The FMLN’s revolution has definitely reached its second, more radical stage.

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History of Sao Paulo Forum

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian troops with APCs invaded mainland Ukraine last week, cap- tured hotel in town of Chongar, Kherson Oblast, set up camp, minefields across isthmus, prompted standoff with Ukrainian army; BBC reported Russian forces digging trenches across land bridge as early as Mar. 2; Kiev: Russian forces seize anti-aircraft base at Cherno- morskoe, NW Crimea, follows Cape Fiolent and Evpa- toria seizures; Ukrainian Armed Forces begin exercise as armor leaves W. city of Lviv, destination “military secret”; Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dempsey: US military prepared to back up NATO if unrest in Ukraine “escalates”; 16 NATO militaries to participate in this week’s Cold Response exercise in N. Norway

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian forces seize Simferopol military hospital, finally disarm Ukrainian soldiers at anti-aircraft base near Sevastopol; acting DM Teniukh: Despite Ukrainian paratrooper drill, no plans to re-take Crimea; Russian occupiers block Ukrainian naval HQ, Belbek airfield in Sevasto- pol, bases in Novoozernoye, Perevalnoye, Feodosiya, Kerch; Russian Navy blockades Sevastopol’s outer bay, Lake Donuzlav; 12 USAF F-16 fighter jets to arrive in Poland today, 300 US servicemen to follow, 4 F-15s deployed to Lithuania; NATO AWACS to patrol skies over Poland, Romania; US Marines bolster presence at Spanish base; Russia’s deputy PM: Modern weapons needed to fend off “overt threats by USA, NATO”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Putin talks by phone with Cameron, Merkel, insists upon legality of Mar. 16 referendum in Ukraine’s Crimea; Crimean parliament speaker in Moscow: Ukraine, Russia must unite as one state; Russian Communist Party boss backs rebel region’s secession, reunification with Russia; 10,000s of nationalists, Russophones hold counter rallies, clash across Ukraine over weekend; Communist Party of Ukraine organizes pro-Russia demo in Donetsk’s Lenin Square, 2,000 attend; Kremlin builds case for wider military intervention, condemns “lawlessness” in E. Ukraine after gunmen attack Kharkiv demo on Mar. 8, blames neo-fascist Right Sector for “conniving” with Kiev; police describe incident as “minor”

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian troops fortify positions in Ukraine’s Crimea: Landing ships unload 200 military vehicles at eastern end of peninsula on Friday night, after apparently crossing Kerch Strait from Russia’s Taman Peninsula; convoy of 60 military trucks with heavily armed soldiers, no license plates head from Feodosiya toward regional capital Simfer- opol; OSCE mission attempts third entrance into Crimea, this time 40 masked gunmen (i.e., Russian troops) fire warning shots, OSCE observers retreat

Red Terror File: Russia, Ukraine feud over sniper carnage during Euromaidan demos; Ukraine’s health minister coordinated medical treatment for protesters, fingers plot between “old regime” (i.e., Yanukovich), Russian special forces; Kremlin alleges Ukrainian opposition orchestrated killings, points to phone call between Estonian FM, EU foreign policy chief; former SBU deputy head, Tymoshenko ally: Security Service, Interior Ministry snipers ordered to shoot both civilians and police, “escalate conflict”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian troops prepare to install and/or take over air defence systems in Ukraine’s Crimea as Kremlin holds air defence drills in W. Military District; attempt to seize Ukrainian anti-aircraft base in Cape Fiolent, Sevastopol, ram military trucks through gates, no shots fired, 20 invaders hurl stun grenades, negotiate surrender with base com- mander, 100 Ukrainian soldiers barricade themselves in barracks, refuse to lay down weapons; Russian invaders retreat, leaving pro-Moscow “self-defence force” to patrol area; 2nd anti-aircraft base partly seized in Evpatoria

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Gunmen (i.e., Russian troops) seize TV station in Simferopol, turn off signals for Ukrainian channels, turn on Kremlin-run Rossiya 24; OSCE military observers arrive in Ukraine, twice prevented from entering Crimea at checkpoint controlled by “unidentified gunmen in military fatigues” (i.e., guess who); Kiev adjusts figure: Russian troops in rebel region total 30,000, including Black Sea Fleet; top Russian lawmaker welcomes annexation of Crimea, 65,000-member rent-a-mob rallies in Red Square, shouts “Crimea is Russia!”; EU announces incremental sanctions, USA immediate ones against Moscow over occupation

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Threat of wide-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine returns as Kremlin holds large air defense drill in W. Military District, follows 150,000-troop exercise designed to intimidate neighbor; in midnight op Russian Navy sinks decommissioned Kara-class cruiser to block Ukrainian warships based at Novoozerne, Crimea; commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet visits Ukrainian naval base earlier this week, urges staff to defect, Ukrainians spurn offer, Rear Admiral Vitko leaves in rage

Red Dawn Alert: Russian DM announces establishment of military bases in leftist states Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Vietnam, Algeria, Seychelles; Shoigu: “Talks are under way, and we are close to signing the relevant documents”; Russian spy ship docked in Havana Feb. 26, day before Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimea; Raul Castro arrives in Venezuela to attend Chavez tribute, Bolivia’s Morales, Nicaragua’s Ortega to follow; Cuba’s “Black Wasp” special forces reportedly deployed to Venezuela to suppress ongoing anti-regime protests

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine dissolves Crimean parliament, nullifies referendum to join Russia; opens criminal case against Rear Admiral Vitko, Commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet charged with sabotage, inciting treason among Ukrainian servicemen; NATO expels Russia from joint mission to neutralize Syria’s chemical arsenal; DM Siemoniak confirms 12 USAF F-16 fighter jets with 300 servicemen to augment small US air unit at Lask base, central Poland, next week for “training exercise”; destroyer USS Truxton enters Black Sea, joins frigate USS Taylor under repair at Turkish port

Putin's Neo-Soviet Adventurism

“The Empire Strikes Back”: The Soviet Bear, it seems, was merely hibernating.

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Putin: No Russian troops in Crimea, but rebel region’s deputy PM declares: “The decree making Crimea part of Russia is already in force and Ukrainian troops on its territory will be treated as occupiers and forced to surrender or leave. The only lawful armed force on the territory of the Crimea is the Russian armed forces”; Yatseniuk in Brussels for EU meeting, calls Crimea vote “illegiti- mate,” vows to defend Ukraine from “foreign forces”; SBU arrests head of “People’s Militia of Donbass” in Donetsk, Gubarev charged with “infringing territorial integrity and independence of the state,” claiming authority over police as “people’s governor”; “protest tourists” from Russia swell anti-Kiev demos

Pavel Gubarev

Pictured above: Pavel Gubarev, center, leader of the pro-Russia People’s Militia of Donbass, spoke to supporters in the regional parliament chamber in Donetsk, Ukraine, on Monday.

As pro-Russia demonstrations in 11 cities have suddenly erupted where significant populations of ethnic Russians live, the apparent organization of the demonstrators, appearances of Russian citizens and reports of busloads of activists arriving from Russia itself suggest a high degree of coordination with Moscow. At a minimum, Russians are instigating protests by Ukrainians sympathetic to Moscow, helping to create a pretext for a broader intervention if Mr. Putin decides to push things that far.
– Andrew Roth, “From Russia, ‘Tourists’ Stir the Protests,” The New York Times, March 3, 2014

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Crimea’s regional parliament votes to join Russian Federation, referendum to occur in 10 days; Russian FM Lavrov refuses to meet new Ukrainian counterpart; EU offers US$15 billion loan, USA $1 billion to prop up Ukraine’s broke interim government; Kiev appoints oligarch new governor for Donetsk Oblast, Russian flag lowered, Ukraine’s raised; pro-Russia separatists break through police ranks, storm building, raise Russian flag again, “people’s government” proclaimed; police protect Kharkiv government center from pro-Russia demos; Kiev accuses Moscow of busing in agents provocateurs over border, foment pretext for military intervention

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: PM Tusk addresses special session of Polish Sejm to consider Russian occupation of Ukraine’s rebel region of Crimea: “Poland and the United States have started consulta- tions on strengthening military cooperation, including further air exercises . . . [in] the nearest future”; PM Yatseniuk: Ukraine will “never give up” Crimea, but “no military options” to re-take strategic peninsula from Russian invaders; UK foreign secretary in Kiev: “Biggest crisis to face Europe in 21st century”; Russia reinforces MiG-29 fleet at Armenian air base, augments 4th Air and Air Defence Forces Command in Rostov, S. Russia

Sofia communist monument vandalized

On March 5, 2014, anti-communists vandalized a Cold War-era monument in Sofia, Bulgaria. Two of the figures were painted with the national colors of Poland and Ukraine. A slogan reads “Putin go home!” while “Katyn” refers to the location in western Russia where the Soviet NKVD massacred 22,000 Poles in April-May 1940.

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Russian Air Force 4th Air and Air Defence Forces Command

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukrainian Navy flagship arrives at Odessa after Gulf of Aden mission; Kremlin, not content with lying about crew’s loyalty to Kiev, alleges frigate Hetman Sahaidachny carries NATO intel equipment, ordered to avoid Sevastopol; Washington to Moscow: Threat against Ukrainian Navy “dangerous escalation”; Crimea’s secessionist, Moscow-backed regime: “We control everything,” 5,500 Ukrainian soldiers have defected; Ukrainian sailors call Putin “baldfaced liar,” Russian Black Sea Fleet blockading warships Ternopil, Slavutych, “No unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed in Crimea gave up even a single inch of the territory of their military bases or the weapons entrusted to them”

Even if nothing else were happening in Crimea, blockading another country’s warships is without question an act of war. Russia cannot realistically deny that it has declared war against Ukraine.

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Following report of Polish tank mobilization along Ukraine’s W. border, POLAND, BALTIC STATES REQUEST “ARTICLE 4″ TALKS WITH NATO ALLIES; Zbigniew Brzezinski editorializes: “NATO cannot be passive if war erupts in Europe,” “New freedom and security in bordering Romania, Poland and . . . Baltic republics . . . threatened,” “West should promptly recognize the current government of Ukraine as legitimate,” “Ukrainian army can count on immediate and direct Western aid,” “NATO forces should be put on alert,” “Immediate airlift to Europe of U.S. airborne units”

USSR2 File: Unconfirmed reports Yanukovich dead, Putin scoffs at news; Kremlin caught in apparent lie: Deposed Ukraine president in Russia’s Rostov-on-Don on Feb. 28, declares: “Any military action in this situation is unacceptable”; three days later, Moscow’s UN ambassador Churkin waves alleged Yanukovich letter at Security Council session, reads “I would call on the president of Russia, Mr Putin, asking him to use the armed forces of the Russian Federation to establish legitimacy, peace, law and order, stability and defending the people of Ukraine”

No wonder Putin said Yanukovich has “no political future” . . .

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WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Ukraine army’s recruitment centers “inundated with willing soldiers,” although threat of wide-scale invasion receded with today’s purported pull back of Russian forces along N., E. borders; Russian Navy blocks Kerch Strait as Russian soldiers overpower Ukrainian border guards, facilitate passage via ferry of weapons from Russia’s Taman Peninsula; Ankara’s fighter jets intercept Russian spy plane along Turkey’s Black Sea coast; contrary to Kremlin propaganda, crew of Ukraine Navy’s flagship remains loyal; naval showdown awaits Hetman Sahaidachny as frigate sails from Bosporus Strait to Sevastopol, where Russian Navy has blockaded two Ukrainian warships

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian military wraps up massive exercise, pulls back to bases after reportedly massing near N., E. Ukraine, test-fires ICBM near Caspian Sea to make point; deadline for Ukrainian forces to surrender in Crimea passes without threatened Russian assault; Putin finally addresses crisis: denies Russian troops in Crimea, only “self-defense teams”; no plans to annex Ukraine’s autonomous region; insinuates Kiev’s leaders are “neo-Nazis, Nazis and anti-Semites,” orchestrated “unconstitutional coup,” “armed seizure of power”; admits Yanukovich “legitimate president” but “no political future,” Moscow received request to “protect welfare of local population,” but no immediate need for military intervention in Ukraine

So, is the Ukraine crisis over just like that? Not if Moscow has its way. See previous post, with link to Nyquist’s analysis.

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Final Phase Backgrounder: 2014 Ukrainian Revolution ousts “ex”- and open communists from power, provokes Putin’s neo-Soviet adventurism; PM Yatseniuk’s cabinet consists of Tymoshenko’s Fatherland and neo-fascist Svoboda parties, Euromaidan activists; MP drafts bill to ban Yanukovich’s Party of Regions, Communists, follows anti-communist measures by regions, toppling of Lenin statues; RUSSIAN COMMUNISTS ADVISE COLLEAGUES AGAINST VISITING EU, USA UNTIL UKRAINE CRISIS OVER, UNITED RUSSIA CONCURS; Kremlin seeks arrest of Ukrainian Right Sector leader, ex-Komsomol Yarosh fought Russian troops in Chechnya, dominant player in Euromaidan protests

Ukrainian Revolution 2014

Composition of Yatseniuk Government

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- American geopolitical analyst Jeff Nyquist explains the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution in terms of communism’s long-range strategy for global conquest:

“Mobilizing for World War III”

WW4 File: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AT WAR: Russian Ground Forces seize border post in Kerch, Ukraine, begin moving troops across Kerch Strait ferry; Russian Black Sea Fleet demands surrender of Ukrainian forces in Crimea by 5 a.m. (local time), March 4; Kremlin says no ultimatum; Putin, DM Shoigu observe military drill near Finnish border as part of wider, 150,000-troop mobilization; Russian army holds exercises near Polish, Lithuanian borders; Moscow’s UN envoy: YANUKO- VICH ASKED PUTIN TO USE RUSSIAN ARMY TO RESTORE LAW AND ORDER IN UKRAINE, Medvedev maintains exiled president still head of state; POSSIBLE NATO INTERVENTION: POLAND MOBILIZES TANKS ALONG UKRAINE BORDER